--- title: "Ref's Favourite case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ref's Favourite ($9.88) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 94.49% over 2,182 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/refs-favourite-2828577 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Ref's Favourite](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/refs-favourite-2828577) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Ref's Favourite A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/refs-favourite-2828577?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/refs-favourite-2828577?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/refs-favourite-2828577) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/refs-favourite-2828577?window=all) Price · $9.88 · 15.2 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $8.89 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.49% · 2,182 openings, odds method Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.17% ±24.47 321 openings 7 days · 92.62% ±10.49 1,746 openings 30 days · 94.49% ±9.39 2,182 openings since tracking started · 94.49% ±9.39 2,182 openings 65.0% 90.3% 115.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/refs-favourite-2828577?window=24h) | 321 | 90.17% ±24.5 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/refs-favourite-2828577?window=7d) | 1,746 | 92.62% ±10.5 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/refs-favourite-2828577) | 2,182 | 94.49% ±9.39 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/refs-favourite-2828577?window=all) | 2,182 | 94.49% ±9.39 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,192 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $112 173 gems | 31.6% | 57 | 54.8 | 1.04× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-solitude-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $72.15 111 gems | 20.3% | 57 | 54.8 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $48.04 73.9 gems | 27.0% | 121 | 109.6 | 1.10× | | [Sticker \| 9z Team (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-holo-antwerp-2022) | 10.0% | $5.08 7.82 gems | 5.7% | 208 | 219.2 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| 9z Team (Holo) \| Cologne 2026 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-holo-cologne-2026) | 10.0% | $3.89 5.98 gems | 4.4% | 196 | 219.2 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| 9z Team (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-gold-antwerp-2022) | 10.0% | $3.09 4.76 gems | 3.5% | 239 | 219.2 | 1.09× | | [Sticker \| 9z Team (Holo) \| Rio 2022 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-holo-rio-2022) | 20.0% | $1.92 2.95 gems | 4.3% | 459 | 438.4 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| 9z Team (Glitter) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-glitter-antwerp-2022) | 20.0% | $1.01 1.55 gems | 2.3% | 449 | 438.4 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| 9z Team (Foil) \| Cologne 2026 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-foil-cologne-2026) | 20.0% | $0.42 0.64 gems | 0.9% | 406 | 438.4 | 0.93× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=refs-favourite-2828577) [Souvenir M4A1-S | Solitude (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-solitude-factory-new) Hidden $9.88 15.2 gems $72.15 111 gems 7.30x 2026-11-12 06:38 UTC [Sticker | 9z Team (Holo) | Rio 2022 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-holo-rio-2022) Hidden $9.88 15.2 gems $1.92 2.95 gems 0.19x 2026-11-12 06:38 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) Hidden $9.88 15.2 gems $48.04 73.9 gems 4.86x 2026-11-12 06:38 UTC [Sticker | 9z Team (Foil) | Cologne 2026 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-foil-cologne-2026) Hidden $9.88 15.2 gems $0.42 0.64 gems 0.04x 2026-11-12 06:38 UTC [Sticker | 9z Team (Holo) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-holo-antwerp-2022) Hidden $9.88 15.2 gems $5.08 7.82 gems 0.51x 2026-11-12 06:38 UTC [Sticker | 9z Team (Foil) | Cologne 2026 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-foil-cologne-2026) [rubbytuesday](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/rubbytuesday) $9.88 15.2 gems $0.42 0.64 gems 0.04x 2026-11-12 06:38 UTC [Sticker | 9z Team (Glitter) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-glitter-antwerp-2022) Hidden $9.88 15.2 gems $1.01 1.55 gems 0.10x 2026-11-12 06:37 UTC [Sticker | 9z Team (Holo) | Cologne 2026 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-holo-cologne-2026) Hidden $9.88 15.2 gems $3.89 5.98 gems 0.39x 2026-11-12 06:37 UTC [Sticker | 9z Team (Holo) | Rio 2022 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-holo-rio-2022) Hidden $9.88 15.2 gems $1.92 2.95 gems 0.19x 2026-11-12 06:37 UTC [Sticker | 9z Team (Gold) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-9z-team-gold-antwerp-2022) [rubbytuesday](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/rubbytuesday) $9.88 15.2 gems $3.09 4.76 gems 0.31x 2026-11-12 06:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $9.88 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 2.5% other 2.5% industrial 5.0% #d32ce6 30.0% Legendary 10.0% covert 10.0% #8847ff 20.0% Mythical 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt