--- title: "Retired case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Retired ($45.31) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 90.20% over 174 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/retired-case rendered: 2026-11-11T23:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Retired](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/retired-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Retired A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/retired-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/retired-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/retired-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/retired-case?window=all) Price · $45.31 · 69.7 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $40.77 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.20% · 174 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 35.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 94.00% ±11.49 162 openings 30 days · 90.20% ±11.09 174 openings since tracking started · 90.20% ±11.09 174 openings 78.5% 92.3% 106.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/retired-case?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/retired-case?window=7d) | 162 | 94.00% ±11.5 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/retired-case) | 174 | 90.20% ±11.1 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/retired-case?window=all) | 174 | 90.20% ±11.1 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 217 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $572 880 gems | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 15.0% | $84.46 130 gems | 31.1% | 31 | 32.5 | 0.95× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 15.3% | $66.95 103 gems | 25.2% | 35 | 33.3 | 1.05× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 34.0% | $45.49 69.98 gems | 37.9% | 77 | 73.8 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| DickStacy (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dickstacy-foil-katowice-2019) | 1 in 10,000 | $26.65 41 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 15.6% | $10.84 16.67 gems | 4.1% | 41 | 33.8 | 1.21× | | [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.65 1 gems | 0.2% | 19 | 21.7 | 0.88× | | [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.51 0.78 gems | 0.1% | 14 | 21.7 | 0.65× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=retired-case) [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $45.49 69.98 gems 1.00x 2026-11-10 13:31 UTC [Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $10.84 16.67 gems 0.24x 2026-11-10 13:31 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $84.46 130 gems 1.86x 2026-11-10 13:31 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $66.95 103 gems 1.48x 2026-11-10 13:31 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $84.46 130 gems 1.86x 2026-11-10 13:31 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) [Armands Miesnieks](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Armands%20Miesnieks) $45.31 69.7 gems $84.46 130 gems 1.86x 2026-11-10 13:31 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $45.49 69.98 gems 1.00x 2026-11-10 13:31 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $45.49 69.98 gems 1.00x 2026-11-10 13:31 UTC [Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $0.51 0.78 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 13:31 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $45.49 69.98 gems 1.00x 2026-11-10 13:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $45.31 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.1% industrial 30.6% covert 15.3% restricted 34.0% remarkable 0.0% #8847ff 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt