--- title: "Rhyme or Reason case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Rhyme or Reason ($257.60) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 64.96% over 1,138 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rhyme-or-reason rendered: 2026-11-11T21:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Rhyme or Reason](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rhyme-or-reason) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Rhyme or Reason A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rhyme-or-reason?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rhyme-or-reason?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rhyme-or-reason) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rhyme-or-reason?window=all) Price · $257.60 · 396 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $231.84 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 64.96% · 1,138 openings, odds method Variance · 53.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 124 openings · below min 7 days · 894 openings · below min 30 days · 64.96% ±42.50 1,138 openings since tracking started · 64.96% ±42.50 1,138 openings -0.5% 89.0% 178.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rhyme-or-reason?window=24h) | 124 | 49.24% ±128.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rhyme-or-reason?window=7d) | 894 | 62.90% ±47.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rhyme-or-reason) | 1,138 | 64.96% ±42.5 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rhyme-or-reason?window=all) | 1,138 | 64.96% ±42.5 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,166 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $26.3K 40,500 gems | 56.8% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.51× | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 40 | $2,072 3,188 gems | 22.3% | 31 | 29.2 | 1.06× | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,000 1,538 gems | 12.9% | 29 | 35.0 | 0.83× | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $180 277 gems | 3.1% | 46 | 46.6 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $78.99 122 gems | 1.7% | 50 | 58.3 | 0.86× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $45.45 69.93 gems | 1.2% | 68 | 70.0 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $10.72 16.49 gems | 0.3% | 91 | 81.6 | 1.11× | | [MP9 \| Music Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-factory-new) | 17.0% | $8.03 12.35 gems | 0.6% | 206 | 198.2 | 1.04× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $6.83 10.5 gems | 0.6% | 221 | 233.2 | 0.95× | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) | 35.0% | $3.06 4.7 gems | 0.5% | 421 | 408.1 | 1.03× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $258 396 gems $26.3K 40,500 gems 102.2x 2026-11-09 21:25 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $258 396 gems $26.3K 40,500 gems 102.2x 2026-11-07 01:57 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $258 396 gems $26.3K 40,500 gems 102.2x 2026-11-04 21:35 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $258 396 gems $2,072 3,188 gems 8.04x 2026-11-11 00:28 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $258 396 gems $2,072 3,188 gems 8.04x 2026-11-11 00:23 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $258 396 gems $2,072 3,188 gems 8.04x 2026-11-11 00:12 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $258 396 gems $2,072 3,188 gems 8.04x 2026-11-11 00:05 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $258 396 gems $2,072 3,188 gems 8.04x 2026-11-11 00:05 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $258 396 gems $2,072 3,188 gems 8.04x 2026-11-09 21:26 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) [Trole](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Trole) $258 396 gems $2,072 3,188 gems 8.04x 2026-11-09 21:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=rhyme-or-reason) [MP9 | Music Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-factory-new) Hidden $258 396 gems $8.03 12.35 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) Hidden $258 396 gems $10.72 16.49 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $258 396 gems $6.83 10.5 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $258 396 gems $6.83 10.5 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $258 396 gems $6.83 10.5 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) [CODE SEXYBOOM / 20K LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/CODE%20SEXYBOOM%20%2F%2020K%20LB) $258 396 gems $45.45 69.93 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) Hidden $258 396 gems $10.72 16.49 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) Hidden $258 396 gems $3.06 4.7 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $258 396 gems $6.83 10.5 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $258 396 gems $6.83 10.5 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $258 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.5% high 2.5% covert 23.0% restricted 39.0% classified 18.0% mil spec 17.0% best hit $26.3K (102.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt