--- title: "Risk Ritual case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Risk Ritual ($13.19) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 10 items with odds, observed 91.99% over 2,262 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/risk-ritual rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Risk Ritual](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/risk-ritual) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Risk Ritual A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/risk-ritual?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/risk-ritual?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/risk-ritual) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/risk-ritual?window=all) Price · $13.19 · 20.29 gems Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $11.86 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.99% · 2,262 openings, odds method Variance · 7.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.80% ±22.07 549 openings 7 days · 92.64% ±11.80 1,920 openings 30 days · 91.99% ±10.87 2,262 openings since tracking started · 91.99% ±10.87 2,262 openings 75.0% 97.8% 120.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/risk-ritual?window=24h) | 549 | 97.80% ±22.1 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/risk-ritual?window=7d) | 1,920 | 92.64% ±11.8 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/risk-ritual) | 2,262 | 91.99% ±10.9 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/risk-ritual?window=all) | 2,262 | 91.99% ±10.9 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,302 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $309 475 gems | 26.0% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $112 173 gems | 18.9% | 50 | 46.0 | 1.09× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $60.62 93.26 gems | 10.2% | 36 | 46.0 | 0.78× | | [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $22.29 34.3 gems | 18.8% | 252 | 230.2 | 1.09× | | [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $12.12 18.64 gems | 10.2% | 220 | 230.2 | 0.96× | | [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $6.08 9.36 gems | 7.7% | 340 | 345.3 | 0.98× | | [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 15.0% | $4.00 6.15 gems | 5.1% | 347 | 345.3 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.57 2.41 gems | 2.0% | 320 | 345.3 | 0.93× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.76 1.17 gems | 1.0% | 331 | 345.3 | 0.96× | | [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.12 0.19 gems | 0.2% | 382 | 345.3 | 1.11× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=risk-ritual) [Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.19 20.29 gems $12.12 18.64 gems 0.92x 2026-11-11 19:01 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) [Pight Tussy](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Pight%20Tussy) $13.19 20.29 gems $0.76 1.17 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:01 UTC [MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.19 20.29 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.19 20.29 gems $0.76 1.17 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.19 20.29 gems $1.57 2.41 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $13.19 20.29 gems $22.29 34.3 gems 1.69x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) Hidden $13.19 20.29 gems $4.00 6.15 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) [SNAF](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SNAF) $13.19 20.29 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.19 20.29 gems $0.76 1.17 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.19 20.29 gems $6.08 9.36 gems 0.46x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.19 | 89.96% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.0% Immortal 2.0% covert 2.0% Mythical 25.0% mil spec 10.0% restricted 30.0% violet 15.0% blue 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt