--- title: "Rolex case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rolex ($343.69) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.55% over 108 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolex rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Rolex](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolex) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Rolex A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolex?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolex?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolex) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolex?window=all) Price · $343.69 · 529 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $309.32 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.55% · 108 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 78 openings · below min 30 days · 89.55% ±28.32 108 openings since tracking started · 89.55% ±28.32 108 openings -0.5% 74.0% 148.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolex?window=24h) | 12 | 62.83% ±84.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolex?window=7d) | 78 | 87.37% ±33.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolex) | 108 | 89.55% ±28.3 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolex?window=all) | 108 | 89.55% ±28.3 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 25.0% | $1,203 1,850 gems | 97.2% | 27 | 27.0 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $60.99 93.83 gems | 1.8% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $18.25 28.08 gems | 0.5% | 10 | 9.7 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $6.21 9.56 gems | 0.2% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× | | [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) | 12.0% | $5.23 8.04 gems | 0.2% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× | | [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1.37 2.1 gems | 0.1% | 16 | 13.0 | 1.23× | | [SSG 08 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.85 1.3 gems | 0.0% | 13 | 13.0 | 1.00× | | [MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.64 0.99 gems | 0.0% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $344 529 gems $1,203 1,850 gems 3.50x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $344 529 gems $1,203 1,850 gems 3.50x 2026-11-10 14:23 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $344 529 gems $1,203 1,850 gems 3.50x 2026-11-08 23:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $344 529 gems $1,203 1,850 gems 3.50x 2026-11-08 23:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $344 529 gems $1,203 1,850 gems 3.50x 2026-11-08 00:36 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $344 529 gems $1,203 1,850 gems 3.50x 2026-11-08 00:36 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $344 529 gems $1,203 1,850 gems 3.50x 2026-11-08 00:36 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $344 529 gems $1,203 1,850 gems 3.50x 2026-11-08 00:36 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $344 529 gems $1,203 1,850 gems 3.50x 2026-11-07 19:36 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $344 529 gems $1,203 1,850 gems 3.50x 2026-11-07 19:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=rolex) [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $344 529 gems $60.99 93.83 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) Hidden $344 529 gems $18.25 28.08 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) Hidden $344 529 gems $18.25 28.08 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $344 529 gems $1,203 1,850 gems 3.50x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) Hidden $344 529 gems $18.25 28.08 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-factory-new) [haze](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/haze) $344 529 gems $1.37 2.1 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $344 529 gems $1,203 1,850 gems 3.50x 2026-11-10 14:23 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $344 529 gems $0.64 0.99 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:23 UTC [SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) Hidden $344 529 gems $0.85 1.3 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:23 UTC [Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-factory-new) Hidden $344 529 gems $1.37 2.1 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $344 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 34.0% restricted 18.0% classified 12.0% Mythical 24.0% industrial 12.0% best hit $1,203 (3.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt