--- title: "Rolling the Dice case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Rolling the Dice ($64.12) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 87.16% over 619 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolling-the-dice rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Rolling the Dice](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolling-the-dice) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Rolling the Dice A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolling-the-dice?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolling-the-dice?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolling-the-dice) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolling-the-dice?window=all) Price · $64.12 · 98.65 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $57.71 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.16% · 619 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 51 openings · below min 7 days · 89.57% ±13.68 550 openings 30 days · 87.16% ±12.90 619 openings since tracking started · 87.16% ±12.90 619 openings 66.0% 111.5% 157.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolling-the-dice?window=24h) | 51 | 111.43% ±44.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolling-the-dice?window=7d) | 550 | 89.57% ±13.7 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolling-the-dice) | 619 | 87.16% ±12.9 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rolling-the-dice?window=all) | 619 | 87.16% ±12.9 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 619 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 16.6% | $293 451 gems | 84.3% | 99 | 102.8 | 0.96× | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 16.6% | $13.01 20.02 gems | 3.7% | 91 | 102.8 | 0.89× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 16.6% | $11.86 18.24 gems | 3.4% | 103 | 102.8 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 16.6% | $11.51 17.7 gems | 3.3% | 98 | 102.8 | 0.95× | | [MAC-10 \| Indigo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-indigo-factory-new) | 16.6% | $9.54 14.67 gems | 2.7% | 110 | 102.8 | 1.07× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 17.0% | $8.53 13.12 gems | 2.5% | 118 | 105.2 | 1.12× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=rolling-the-dice) [MAC-10 | Indigo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-indigo-factory-new) Hidden $64.12 98.65 gems $9.54 14.67 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $64.12 98.65 gems $293 451 gems 4.57x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $64.12 98.65 gems $13.01 20.02 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $64.12 98.65 gems $13.01 20.02 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [MAC-10 | Indigo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-indigo-factory-new) Hidden $64.12 98.65 gems $9.54 14.67 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) [Code: XTRA $500 lb](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Code%3A%20XTRA%20%24500%20lb) $64.12 98.65 gems $11.86 18.24 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $64.12 98.65 gems $13.01 20.02 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) Hidden $64.12 98.65 gems $8.53 13.12 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $64.12 98.65 gems $11.86 18.24 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $64.12 98.65 gems $293 451 gems 4.57x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $64.12 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 33.2% classified 33.2% Common 16.6% restricted 17.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt