--- title: "Round One case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Round One ($20.53) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 12 items with odds, observed 87.10% over 3,507 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/round-one rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Round One](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/round-one) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Round One A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/round-one?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/round-one?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/round-one) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/round-one?window=all) Price · $20.53 · 31.59 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $18.48 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.10% · 3,507 openings, odds method Variance · 20.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 47.07% ±40.86 469 openings 7 days · 87.63% ±16.68 2,815 openings 30 days · 87.10% ±14.94 3,507 openings since tracking started · 87.10% ±14.94 3,507 openings 5.5% 55.3% 105.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/round-one?window=24h) | 469 | 47.07% ±40.9 | −2.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/round-one?window=7d) | 2,815 | 87.63% ±16.7 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/round-one) | 3,507 | 87.10% ±14.9 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/round-one?window=all) | 3,507 | 87.10% ±14.9 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,541 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $903 1,389 gems | 48.9% | 32 | 35.4 | 0.90× | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $205 316 gems | 11.1% | 32 | 35.4 | 0.90× | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $111 171 gems | 6.0% | 44 | 35.4 | 1.24× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $83.84 129 gems | 9.1% | 75 | 70.8 | 1.06× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $35.01 53.86 gems | 9.5% | 176 | 177.1 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $23.40 36 gems | 6.3% | 178 | 177.1 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.11 14.01 gems | 4.9% | 373 | 354.1 | 1.05× | | [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.45 5.31 gems | 1.9% | 346 | 354.1 | 0.98× | | [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.60 2.46 gems | 0.9% | 350 | 354.1 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.84 1.29 gems | 0.7% | 514 | 531.1 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.54 0.83 gems | 0.6% | 710 | 708.2 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.19 0.29 gems | 0.2% | 711 | 708.2 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $903 1,389 gems 43.97x 2026-11-10 13:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $903 1,389 gems 43.97x 2026-11-10 08:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $903 1,389 gems 43.97x 2026-11-10 08:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $903 1,389 gems 43.97x 2026-11-10 08:16 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $903 1,389 gems 43.97x 2026-11-09 22:21 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $903 1,389 gems 43.97x 2026-11-09 22:11 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $903 1,389 gems 43.97x 2026-11-09 21:34 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $903 1,389 gems 43.97x 2026-11-08 19:42 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $903 1,389 gems 43.97x 2026-11-08 19:12 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $903 1,389 gems 43.97x 2026-11-08 08:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=round-one) [Glock-18 | Clear Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $0.54 0.83 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $1.60 2.46 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $23.40 36 gems 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Clear Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $0.54 0.83 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Clear Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $0.54 0.83 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [USP-S | Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) [TwitchBaleszko](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TwitchBaleszko) $20.53 31.59 gems $0.19 0.29 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $0.84 1.29 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $9.11 14.01 gems 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $83.84 129 gems 4.08x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $20.53 31.59 gems $3.45 5.31 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $20.53 | 89.98% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 12.0% classified 6.0% covert 2.0% red 5.0% mil spec 45.0% Rare 10.0% milspec 20.0% best hit $903 (43.97x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt