--- title: "Rudolph case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rudolph ($24.69) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 8 items with odds, observed 108.80% over 661 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rudolph rendered: 2026-11-11T22:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Rudolph](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rudolph) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Rudolph A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rudolph?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rudolph?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rudolph) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rudolph?window=all) Price · $24.69 · 37.98 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $22.21 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 108.80% · 661 openings, odds method Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 68 openings · below min 7 days · 99.94% ±20.14 555 openings 30 days · 108.80% ±18.45 661 openings since tracking started · 108.80% ±18.45 661 openings 48.5% 106.5% 164.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.98% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.35% – 127.26%, 661 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rudolph?window=24h) | 68 | 106.47% ±57.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rudolph?window=7d) | 555 | 99.94% ±20.1 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rudolph) | 661 | 108.80% ±18.5 | +2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rudolph?window=all) | 661 | 108.80% ±18.5 | +2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 661 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $329 506 gems | 44.4% | 25 | 19.8 | 1.26× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $123 190 gems | 16.7% | 23 | 19.8 | 1.16× | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $80.91 124 gems | 14.6% | 41 | 26.4 | 1.55× | | [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) | 10.0% | $26.05 40.08 gems | 11.7% | 68 | 66.1 | 1.03× | | [Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-factory-new) | 10.0% | $15.66 24.09 gems | 7.0% | 52 | 66.1 | 0.79× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $9.96 15.32 gems | 4.5% | 63 | 66.1 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-corinthian-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.94 2.98 gems | 0.9% | 69 | 66.1 | 1.04× | | [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) | 50.0% | $0.10 0.15 gems | 0.2% | 320 | 330.5 | 0.97× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=rudolph) [M4A4 | Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) Hidden $24.69 37.98 gems $26.05 40.08 gems 1.06x 2026-11-11 17:04 UTC [M4A4 | Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) Hidden $24.69 37.98 gems $26.05 40.08 gems 1.06x 2026-11-11 17:04 UTC [M4A4 | Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) Hidden $24.69 37.98 gems $26.05 40.08 gems 1.06x 2026-11-11 17:04 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) [Kick/HarryJZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick%2FHarryJZ) $24.69 37.98 gems $0.10 0.15 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:04 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-corinthian-factory-new) Hidden $24.69 37.98 gems $1.94 2.98 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.69 37.98 gems $9.96 15.32 gems 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) Hidden $24.69 37.98 gems $0.10 0.15 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) [m0m0\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/m0m0_) $24.69 37.98 gems $0.10 0.15 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) Hidden $24.69 37.98 gems $0.10 0.15 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [G3SG1 | Hunter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-factory-new) Hidden $24.69 37.98 gems $0.10 0.15 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $24.69 | 89.98% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 3.0% extraordinary 3.0% #d32ee6 4.0% industrial 20.0% covert 10.0% milspec 10.0% blue 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt