--- title: "Safari Season case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Safari Season ($10.76) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 11 items with odds, observed 81.33% over 6,975 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/safari-season rendered: 2026-11-12T11:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Safari Season](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/safari-season) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Safari Season A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/safari-season?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/safari-season?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/safari-season) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/safari-season?window=all) Price · $10.76 · 16.55 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $9.68 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.33% · 6,975 openings, odds method Variance · 23.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 83 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.20% ±33.60 809 openings 7 days · 78.63% ±12.72 5,644 openings 30 days · 81.33% ±11.44 6,975 openings since tracking started · 81.33% ±11.44 6,975 openings 57.0% 91.2% 125.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/safari-season?window=24h) | 809 | 91.20% ±33.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/safari-season?window=7d) | 5,644 | 78.63% ±12.7 | −1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/safari-season) | 6,975 | 81.33% ±11.4 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/safari-season?window=all) | 6,975 | 81.33% ±11.4 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,138 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $651 1,002 gems | 13.4% | 15 | 14.3 | 1.05× | | [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $615 946 gems | 12.7% | 11 | 14.3 | 0.77× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $355 545 gems | 14.6% | 26 | 28.6 | 0.91× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $260 401 gems | 10.8% | 25 | 28.6 | 0.88× | | [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $185 285 gems | 15.3% | 41 | 57.1 | 0.72× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $91.08 140 gems | 9.4% | 70 | 71.4 | 0.98× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $82.91 128 gems | 8.6% | 70 | 71.4 | 0.98× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $63.24 97.29 gems | 6.5% | 70 | 71.4 | 0.98× | | [G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $2.47 3.8 gems | 5.1% | 1,477 | 1427.6 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.97 1.49 gems | 3.0% | 2,184 | 2141.4 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 45.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.5% | 3,149 | 3212.1 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $651 1,002 gems 60.51x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $651 1,002 gems 60.51x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $651 1,002 gems 60.51x 2026-11-10 08:30 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) [sten 7](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/sten%207) $10.76 16.55 gems $651 1,002 gems 60.51x 2026-11-09 15:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $651 1,002 gems 60.51x 2026-11-09 15:05 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) [k v b a](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/k%20v%20b%20a) $10.76 16.55 gems $651 1,002 gems 60.51x 2026-11-08 20:33 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $651 1,002 gems 60.51x 2026-11-06 10:42 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $651 1,002 gems 60.51x 2026-11-06 06:48 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $651 1,002 gems 60.51x 2026-11-05 19:47 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $651 1,002 gems 60.51x 2026-11-05 19:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=safari-season) [AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 09:08 UTC [G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $2.47 3.8 gems 0.23x 2026-11-12 09:08 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 09:08 UTC [G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $2.47 3.8 gems 0.23x 2026-11-12 09:08 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.09x 2026-11-12 09:08 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) [sten 7](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/sten%207) $10.76 16.55 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.09x 2026-11-12 09:08 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 08:25 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 08:25 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [Swipr](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Swipr) $10.76 16.55 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 08:25 UTC [G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.76 16.55 gems $2.47 3.8 gems 0.23x 2026-11-12 07:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $10.76 | 89.99% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% covert knife 2.2% #ffd700 0.4% Covert 0.4% knifes 0.8% rare 1.0% consumer 20.0% industrial 75.0% best hit $651 (60.51x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt