--- title: "Sakura case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sakura ($63.73) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 97.00% over 1,473 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sakura rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Sakura](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sakura) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Sakura A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sakura?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sakura?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sakura) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sakura?window=all) Price · $63.73 · 98.05 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $57.36 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.00% · 1,473 openings, odds method Variance · 15.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97 openings · below min 7 days · 94.30% ±20.44 1,384 openings 30 days · 97.00% ±19.82 1,473 openings since tracking started · 97.00% ±19.82 1,473 openings 58.5% 136.3% 214.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sakura?window=24h) | 97 | 136.27% ±77.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sakura?window=7d) | 1,384 | 94.30% ±20.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sakura) | 1,473 | 97.00% ±19.8 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sakura?window=all) | 1,473 | 97.00% ±19.8 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,485 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,287 3,518 gems | 39.9% | 16 | 14.8 | 1.08× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $677 1,041 gems | 23.6% | 31 | 29.7 | 1.04× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $317 487 gems | 11.0% | 35 | 29.7 | 1.18× | | [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $125 192 gems | 10.9% | 81 | 74.3 | 1.09× | | [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $37.89 58.3 gems | 6.6% | 161 | 148.5 | 1.08× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $20.03 30.81 gems | 3.5% | 152 | 148.5 | 1.02× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $9.69 14.9 gems | 3.4% | 271 | 297.0 | 0.91× | | [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $2.35 3.61 gems | 0.8% | 286 | 297.0 | 0.96× | | [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.61 0.94 gems | 0.3% | 452 | 445.5 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $2,287 3,518 gems 35.88x 2026-11-11 00:10 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $2,287 3,518 gems 35.88x 2026-11-11 00:05 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $2,287 3,518 gems 35.88x 2026-11-10 00:03 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) [conq](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/conq) $63.73 98.05 gems $2,287 3,518 gems 35.88x 2026-11-08 01:18 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $2,287 3,518 gems 35.88x 2026-11-07 11:39 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $2,287 3,518 gems 35.88x 2026-11-06 15:52 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $2,287 3,518 gems 35.88x 2026-11-06 12:11 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) [Hydrarewards.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Hydrarewards.com) $63.73 98.05 gems $2,287 3,518 gems 35.88x 2026-11-06 09:55 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) [VarsityGambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/VarsityGambles) $63.73 98.05 gems $2,287 3,518 gems 35.88x 2026-11-05 21:10 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $2,287 3,518 gems 35.88x 2026-11-05 17:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=sakura) [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $9.69 14.9 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $20.03 30.81 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $317 487 gems 4.97x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $0.61 0.94 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $0.61 0.94 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $63.73 98.05 gems $9.69 14.9 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $37.89 58.3 gems 0.59x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-factory-new) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $125 192 gems 1.96x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $63.73 98.05 gems $125 192 gems 1.96x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) Hidden $63.73 98.05 gems $9.69 14.9 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $63.73 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.0% classified 22.0% Legendary 15.0% Classified 10.0% Mythical 20.0% violet 30.0% best hit $2,287 (35.88x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt