--- title: "Santa's Bag case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Santa's Bag ($56.54) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 78.48% over 403 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/santas-bag-284276 rendered: 2026-11-12T03:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Santa's Bag](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/santas-bag-284276) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Santa's Bag A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/santas-bag-284276?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/santas-bag-284276?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/santas-bag-284276) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/santas-bag-284276?window=all) Price · $56.54 · 86.99 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $50.88 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.48% · 403 openings, odds method Variance · 8.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 23 openings · below min 7 days · 74.31% ±33.07 285 openings 30 days · 78.48% ±27.81 403 openings since tracking started · 78.48% ±27.81 403 openings -0.5% 99.3% 199.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/santas-bag-284276?window=24h) | 23 | 81.91% ±116.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/santas-bag-284276?window=7d) | 285 | 74.31% ±33.1 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/santas-bag-284276) | 403 | 78.48% ±27.8 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/santas-bag-284276?window=all) | 403 | 78.48% ±27.8 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 403 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $914 1,407 gems | 53.9% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.83× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $215 331 gems | 25.4% | 24 | 24.2 | 0.99× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $87.26 134 gems | 10.3% | 16 | 24.2 | 0.66× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $57.84 88.98 gems | 6.8% | 25 | 24.2 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 10.0% | $7.83 12.04 gems | 1.5% | 42 | 40.3 | 1.04× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 10.0% | $6.11 9.4 gems | 1.2% | 36 | 40.3 | 0.89× | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.82 2.8 gems | 0.4% | 40 | 40.3 | 0.99× | | [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 49.0% | $0.51 0.79 gems | 0.5% | 210 | 197.5 | 1.06× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) [efe](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/efe) $56.54 86.99 gems $914 1,407 gems 16.17x 2026-11-09 22:09 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $914 1,407 gems 16.17x 2026-11-08 02:05 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $914 1,407 gems 16.17x 2026-11-07 20:02 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $914 1,407 gems 16.17x 2026-11-07 20:02 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) [makethemCRY](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/makethemCRY) $56.54 86.99 gems $914 1,407 gems 16.17x 2026-11-07 12:57 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) [Smiling Grizzly](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Smiling%20Grizzly) $56.54 86.99 gems $914 1,407 gems 16.17x 2026-11-05 17:24 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $914 1,407 gems 16.17x 2026-11-04 01:52 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $914 1,407 gems 16.17x 2026-11-04 01:51 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) [kfc32](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/kfc32) $56.54 86.99 gems $914 1,407 gems 16.17x 2026-11-04 01:51 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $914 1,407 gems 16.17x 2026-11-03 17:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=santas-bag-284276) [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $57.84 88.98 gems 1.02x 2026-11-11 23:05 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $0.51 0.79 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:05 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $0.51 0.79 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:05 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $215 331 gems 3.81x 2026-11-11 23:05 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $0.51 0.79 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:05 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) [ｍ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%EF%BD%8D) $56.54 86.99 gems $57.84 88.98 gems 1.02x 2026-11-11 23:05 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $0.51 0.79 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $6.11 9.4 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $56.54 86.99 gems $57.84 88.98 gems 1.02x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) [https://kick.com/waxumfriendly](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/https%3A%2F%2Fkick.com%2Fwaxumfriendly) $56.54 86.99 gems $0.51 0.79 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $56.54 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 3.0% gold 6.0% covert 16.0% restricted 6.0% classified 10.0% Legendary 10.0% violet 49.0% best hit $914 (16.17x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt