--- title: "Sapphire Dream case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sapphire Dream ($30.96) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 7 items with odds, observed 80.98% over 2,413 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sapphire-dream rendered: 2026-11-11T21:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Sapphire Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sapphire-dream) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Sapphire Dream A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sapphire-dream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sapphire-dream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sapphire-dream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sapphire-dream?window=all) Price · $30.96 · 47.63 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $27.86 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.98% · 2,413 openings, odds method Variance · 93.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 333 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 393 openings · below min 7 days · 75.50% ±44.74 1,803 openings 30 days · 80.98% ±38.67 2,413 openings since tracking started · 80.98% ±38.67 2,413 openings -0.5% 75.3% 151.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sapphire-dream?window=24h) | 393 | 54.39% ±95.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sapphire-dream?window=7d) | 1,803 | 75.50% ±44.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sapphire-dream) | 2,413 | 80.98% ±38.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sapphire-dream?window=all) | 2,413 | 80.98% ±38.7 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,453 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,703 11,851 gems | 27.6% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $3,160 4,861 gems | 22.7% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.63× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $2,382 3,664 gems | 17.1% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 19.5% | $26.31 40.48 gems | 18.4% | 515 | 478.3 | 1.08× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $8.44 12.99 gems | 6.1% | 486 | 490.6 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $4.16 6.4 gems | 4.5% | 730 | 735.9 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 30.0% | $3.36 5.17 gems | 3.6% | 711 | 735.9 | 0.97× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $7,703 11,851 gems 248.8x 2026-11-09 23:20 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $3,160 4,861 gems 102.1x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $3,160 4,861 gems 102.1x 2026-11-08 22:09 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $3,160 4,861 gems 102.1x 2026-11-08 16:06 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $3,160 4,861 gems 102.1x 2026-11-05 18:23 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $3,160 4,861 gems 102.1x 2026-11-04 18:51 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $3,160 4,861 gems 102.1x 2026-11-04 12:21 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $3,160 4,861 gems 102.1x 2026-11-04 10:58 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $3,160 4,861 gems 102.1x 2026-11-04 06:19 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $2,382 3,664 gems 76.93x 2026-11-06 09:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=sapphire-dream) [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $26.31 40.48 gems 0.85x 2026-11-11 21:20 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $8.44 12.99 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:20 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $4.16 6.4 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) [SVJ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SVJ) $30.96 47.63 gems $3.36 5.17 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $3.36 5.17 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $26.31 40.48 gems 0.85x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $26.31 40.48 gems 0.85x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $4.16 6.4 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.96 47.63 gems $8.44 12.99 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) [Live kick/vaultycs](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20kick%2Fvaultycs) $30.96 47.63 gems $4.16 6.4 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $30.96 | 89.99% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.1% sunny 0.4% classified 49.5% industrial 20.0% mil spec 30.0% best hit $7,703 (248.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt