--- title: "Scorched Earth case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Scorched Earth ($200.82) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 95.04% over 1,114 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/scorched-earth rendered: 2026-11-11T19:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Scorched Earth](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/scorched-earth) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Scorched Earth A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/scorched-earth?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/scorched-earth?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/scorched-earth) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/scorched-earth?window=all) Price · $200.82 · 309 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $180.74 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.04% · 1,114 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.24% ±9.04 678 openings 7 days · 94.55% ±7.07 1,108 openings 30 days · 95.04% ±7.05 1,114 openings since tracking started · 95.04% ±7.05 1,114 openings 87.0% 97.0% 107.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/scorched-earth?window=24h) | 678 | 97.24% ±9.04 | +1.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/scorched-earth?window=7d) | 1,108 | 94.55% ±7.07 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/scorched-earth) | 1,114 | 95.04% ±7.05 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/scorched-earth?window=all) | 1,114 | 95.04% ±7.05 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,124 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 10.0% | $647 995 gems | 35.8% | 123 | 112.4 | 1.09× | | [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-factory-new) | 10.0% | $495 761 gems | 27.4% | 112 | 112.4 | 1.00× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 10.0% | $449 691 gems | 24.9% | 127 | 112.4 | 1.13× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 10.0% | $207 318 gems | 11.4% | 101 | 112.4 | 0.90× | | [UMP-45 \| Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.70 2.62 gems | 0.2% | 222 | 224.8 | 0.99× | | [MP7 \| Scorched (Factory New) weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-scorched-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.70 2.61 gems | 0.2% | 203 | 224.8 | 0.90× | | [P90 \| Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.49 2.3 gems | 0.2% | 236 | 224.8 | 1.05× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $647 995 gems 3.22x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $647 995 gems 3.22x 2026-11-11 14:34 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $647 995 gems 3.22x 2026-11-11 14:34 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $647 995 gems 3.22x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $647 995 gems 3.22x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $647 995 gems 3.22x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) [Armands Miesnieks](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Armands%20Miesnieks) $201 309 gems $647 995 gems 3.22x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $647 995 gems 3.22x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $647 995 gems 3.22x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) [Armands Miesnieks](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Armands%20Miesnieks) $201 309 gems $647 995 gems 3.22x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=scorched-earth) [P90 | Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $1.49 2.3 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC [UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $1.70 2.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $207 318 gems 1.03x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC [P90 | Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $1.49 2.3 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $207 318 gems 1.03x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC [UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-factory-new) [Armands Miesnieks](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Armands%20Miesnieks) $201 309 gems $1.70 2.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC [UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $1.70 2.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC [UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $1.70 2.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $495 761 gems 2.46x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $201 309 gems $207 318 gems 1.03x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $201 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% covert knife 20.0% epic 10.0% consumer 40.0% SMGs 20.0% best hit $647 (3.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt