--- title: "Sell Out case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sell Out ($30.30) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.19% from 10 items with odds, observed 77.70% over 1,988 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sell-out rendered: 2026-11-11T17:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Sell Out](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sell-out) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Sell Out A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sell-out?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sell-out?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sell-out) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sell-out?window=all) Price · $30.30 · 46.62 gems Advertised RTP · 89.19% · EV $27.03 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.70% · 1,988 openings, odds method Variance · 14.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.27% ±43.27 295 openings 7 days · 79.92% ±17.67 1,769 openings 30 days · 77.70% ±16.67 1,988 openings since tracking started · 77.70% ±16.67 1,988 openings 49.5% 93.3% 137.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sell-out?window=24h) | 295 | 93.27% ±43.3 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sell-out?window=7d) | 1,769 | 79.92% ±17.7 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sell-out) | 1,988 | 77.70% ±16.7 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sell-out?window=all) | 1,988 | 77.70% ±16.7 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,046 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,535 2,361 gems | 11.4% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $1,223 1,882 gems | 13.6% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $736 1,132 gems | 13.6% | 8 | 10.2 | 0.78× | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $279 430 gems | 10.3% | 19 | 20.5 | 0.93× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $143 220 gems | 10.6% | 44 | 40.9 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $125 192 gems | 9.3% | 46 | 40.9 | 1.12× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $81.24 125 gems | 12.0% | 74 | 81.8 | 0.90× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $62.78 96.59 gems | 11.6% | 95 | 102.3 | 0.93× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $35.45 54.54 gems | 6.6% | 114 | 102.3 | 1.11× | | [Sticker \| Gutted sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gutted) | 80.0% | $0.37 0.57 gems | 1.1% | 1,640 | 1636.8 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $1,535 2,361 gems 50.65x 2026-11-11 06:41 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $1,535 2,361 gems 50.65x 2026-11-09 21:38 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) [specedean](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/specedean) $30.30 46.62 gems $1,535 2,361 gems 50.65x 2026-11-06 16:47 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $1,223 1,882 gems 40.37x 2026-11-10 21:10 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $1,223 1,882 gems 40.37x 2026-11-09 05:35 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $1,223 1,882 gems 40.37x 2026-11-08 15:34 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $736 1,132 gems 24.28x 2026-11-10 21:15 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [ST](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ST) $30.30 46.62 gems $736 1,132 gems 24.28x 2026-11-10 17:39 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Headed](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Headed) $30.30 46.62 gems $736 1,132 gems 24.28x 2026-11-10 17:38 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $736 1,132 gems 24.28x 2026-11-09 14:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=sell-out) [Sticker | Gutted sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gutted) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $0.37 0.57 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC [Sticker | Gutted sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gutted) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $0.37 0.57 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC [Sticker | Gutted sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gutted) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $0.37 0.57 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC [Sticker | Gutted sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gutted) [Liborosak](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Liborosak) $30.30 46.62 gems $0.37 0.57 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC [Sticker | Gutted sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gutted) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $0.37 0.57 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sticker | Gutted sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gutted) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $0.37 0.57 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sticker | Gutted sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gutted) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $0.37 0.57 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $81.24 125 gems 2.68x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sticker | Gutted sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gutted) Hidden $30.30 46.62 gems $0.37 0.57 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sticker | Gutted sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gutted) [暗Shinowanaい](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E6%9A%97Shinowana%E3%81%84) $30.30 46.62 gems $0.37 0.57 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $30.30 | 89.19% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.0% restricted 1.0% classified 4.0% high 80.0% best hit $1,535 (50.65x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.19 on average: an expected loss of $10.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt