--- title: "Setting Sun case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Setting Sun ($8.48) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 5 items with odds, observed 87.13% over 1,162 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/setting-sun rendered: 2026-11-11T18:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Setting Sun](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/setting-sun) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Setting Sun A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/setting-sun?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/setting-sun?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/setting-sun) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/setting-sun?window=all) Price · $8.48 · 13.05 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $7.63 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.13% · 1,162 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.73% ±21.60 174 openings 7 days · 88.20% ±9.00 1,003 openings 30 days · 87.13% ±8.36 1,162 openings since tracking started · 87.13% ±8.36 1,162 openings 75.5% 97.8% 120.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/setting-sun?window=24h) | 174 | 97.73% ±21.6 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/setting-sun?window=7d) | 1,003 | 88.20% ±9.00 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/setting-sun) | 1,162 | 87.13% ±8.36 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/setting-sun?window=all) | 1,162 | 87.13% ±8.36 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,169 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $54.78 84.27 gems | 14.4% | 24 | 23.4 | 1.03× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $37.84 58.21 gems | 39.7% | 94 | 93.5 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $13.24 20.37 gems | 17.3% | 102 | 116.9 | 0.87× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 20.0% | $9.51 14.63 gems | 24.9% | 218 | 233.8 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) | 60.0% | $0.47 0.73 gems | 3.7% | 731 | 701.4 | 1.04× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=setting-sun) [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 13.05 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:48 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 13.05 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:48 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 13.05 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:48 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) [Cow](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Cow) $8.48 13.05 gems $9.51 14.63 gems 1.12x 2026-11-11 17:48 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 13.05 gems $9.51 14.63 gems 1.12x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 13.05 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 13.05 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 13.05 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 13.05 gems $9.51 14.63 gems 1.12x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) [SandoB. #YNWA](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SandoB.%20%23YNWA) $8.48 13.05 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8.48 | 89.99% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 2.0% mil spec 8.0% industrial 10.0% covert 20.0% Mil Spec Grade 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt