--- title: "Shadow Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Shadow Case ($2.65) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.85% from 29 items with odds, observed 101.66% over 5,863 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadow-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Shadow Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadow-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Shadow Case A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadow-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadow-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadow-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadow-case?window=all) Price · $2.65 · 4.07 gems Advertised RTP · 89.85% · EV $2.38 from 29 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.66% · 5,863 openings, odds method Variance · 15.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 51 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 108.07% ±19.80 1,488 openings 7 days · 102.27% ±10.57 5,217 openings 30 days · 101.66% ±9.98 5,863 openings since tracking started · 101.66% ±9.98 5,863 openings 87.5% 108.0% 128.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.85% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.68% – 111.64%, 5,863 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadow-case?window=24h) | 1,488 | 108.07% ±19.8 | +1.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadow-case?window=7d) | 5,217 | 102.27% ±10.6 | +2.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadow-case) | 5,863 | 101.66% ±9.98 | +2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadow-case?window=all) | 5,863 | 101.66% ±9.98 | +2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,896 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $263 404 gems | 2.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.70× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $159 245 gems | 1.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.70× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $140 215 gems | 1.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $136 209 gems | 1.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.70× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $92.25 142 gems | 0.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $91.21 140 gems | 0.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $91.19 140 gems | 0.8% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.70× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $86.73 133 gems | 11.7% | 23 | 18.9 | 1.22× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $86.32 133 gems | 0.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $82.58 127 gems | 11.1% | 23 | 18.9 | 1.22× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $81.72 126 gems | 0.7% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.70× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| ★ (Vanilla) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-vanilla) | 1 in 5,000 | $79.76 123 gems | 0.7% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.54× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $78.98 122 gems | 0.7% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.70× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $78.00 120 gems | 0.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $61.87 95.19 gems | 0.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $46.38 71.36 gems | 20.8% | 70 | 62.9 | 1.11× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $11.41 17.55 gems | 5.1% | 70 | 62.9 | 1.11× | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $11.38 17.5 gems | 5.1% | 63 | 62.9 | 1.00× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.65 5.62 gems | 6.1% | 233 | 235.5 | 0.99× | | [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.61 4.02 gems | 4.4% | 251 | 235.5 | 1.07× | | [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.58 3.97 gems | 4.3% | 245 | 235.5 | 1.04× | | [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.57 3.96 gems | 4.3% | 236 | 235.5 | 1.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.92 1.42 gems | 4.4% | 676 | 673.1 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.57 0.87 gems | 2.7% | 677 | 673.1 | 1.01× | | [XM1014 \| Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.44 0.67 gems | 2.1% | 665 | 673.1 | 0.99× | | [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.31 0.47 gems | 1.5% | 710 | 673.1 | 1.05× | | [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.31 0.47 gems | 1.5% | 672 | 673.1 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.29 0.44 gems | 1.4% | 669 | 673.1 | 0.99× | | [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.28 0.43 gems | 1.3% | 593 | 673.3 | 0.88× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) [mike](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/mike) $2.65 4.07 gems $263 404 gems 99.26x 2026-11-04 19:47 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $263 404 gems 99.26x 2026-11-04 03:08 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $159 245 gems 60.23x 2026-11-10 23:07 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) [SanZuk](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SanZuk) $2.65 4.07 gems $159 245 gems 60.23x 2026-11-10 22:35 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $140 215 gems 52.79x 2026-11-11 00:08 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $136 209 gems 51.30x 2026-11-05 18:08 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $136 209 gems 51.30x 2026-11-03 11:35 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=shadow-case) [Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $2.57 3.96 gems 0.97x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $0.29 0.44 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $2.58 3.97 gems 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [XM1014 | Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $0.44 0.67 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) [Elizabeth](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Elizabeth) $2.65 4.07 gems $0.92 1.42 gems 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC [P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $2.58 3.97 gems 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 4.07 gems $3.65 5.62 gems 1.38x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) [SiMoNiO™](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SiMoNiO%E2%84%A2) $2.65 4.07 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.65 | 89.85% | 29 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.8% covert knife 0.0% rare 0.0% other 0.0% classified 3.2% restricted 8.0% violet 4.0% Mythical 4.0% #4b69ff 11.4% blue 11.4% Rare 22.8% mil spec 34.3% best hit $263 (99.26x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.85 on average: an expected loss of $10.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt