--- title: "Shadows case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Shadows ($239.06) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 5 items with odds, observed 113.84% over 32 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadows rendered: 2026-11-11T14:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Shadows](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadows) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Shadows A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadows?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadows?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadows) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadows?window=all) Price · $239.06 · 368 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $215.15 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 113.84% · 32 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 40.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min 11.5% 99.5% 187.5% **Small sample.** 32 openings and 12.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadows?window=24h) | 4 | 99.50% ±87.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadows?window=7d) | 32 | 113.84% ±30.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadows) | 32 | 113.84% ±30.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shadows?window=all) | 32 | 113.84% ±30.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) | 40.0% | $472 727 gems | 87.8% | 17 | 12.8 | 1.33× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 10.0% | $120 185 gems | 5.6% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $102 157 gems | 4.7% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 10.0% | $29.58 45.51 gems | 1.4% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 30.0% | $3.27 5.03 gems | 0.5% | 7 | 9.6 | 0.73× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=shadows) [★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $239 368 gems $472 727 gems 1.98x 2026-11-10 15:42 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $239 368 gems $3.27 5.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 15:42 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $239 368 gems $472 727 gems 1.98x 2026-11-10 15:42 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $239 368 gems $3.27 5.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 15:42 UTC [Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) Hidden $239 368 gems $29.58 45.51 gems 0.12x 2026-11-08 17:26 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $239 368 gems $3.27 5.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-08 17:26 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $239 368 gems $472 727 gems 1.98x 2026-11-08 17:26 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) [trickytrash](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/trickytrash) $239 368 gems $3.27 5.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-08 17:26 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $239 368 gems $472 727 gems 1.98x 2026-11-07 14:08 UTC [AWP | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) Hidden $239 368 gems $120 185 gems 0.50x 2026-11-07 14:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $239 | 90.00% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 40.0% classified 10.0% mil spec 40.0% restricted 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt