--- title: "Sharp Odds case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sharp Odds ($28.56) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 70.18% over 520 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sharp-odds rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Sharp Odds](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sharp-odds) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Sharp Odds A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sharp-odds?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sharp-odds?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sharp-odds) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sharp-odds?window=all) Price · $28.56 · 43.94 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $25.70 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 70.18% · 520 openings, odds method Variance · 9.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 105 openings · below min 7 days · 67.47% ±27.54 457 openings 30 days · 70.18% ±25.81 520 openings since tracking started · 70.18% ±25.81 520 openings -0.5% 53.5% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sharp-odds?window=24h) | 105 | 49.27% ±57.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sharp-odds?window=7d) | 457 | 67.47% ±27.5 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sharp-odds) | 520 | 70.18% ±25.8 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sharp-odds?window=all) | 520 | 70.18% ±25.8 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 520 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $636 978 gems | 24.7% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | | [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $401 617 gems | 31.2% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $172 265 gems | 13.4% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $44.30 68.16 gems | 8.6% | 21 | 26.0 | 0.81× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $24.69 37.99 gems | 4.8% | 22 | 26.0 | 0.85× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $16.05 24.69 gems | 3.1% | 27 | 26.0 | 1.04× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $10.61 16.32 gems | 2.1% | 27 | 26.0 | 1.04× | | [MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 15.0% | $7.95 12.23 gems | 4.6% | 94 | 78.0 | 1.21× | | [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $4.55 7 gems | 5.3% | 157 | 156.0 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) | 30.0% | $1.79 2.75 gems | 2.1% | 153 | 156.0 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $28.56 43.94 gems $636 978 gems 22.27x 2026-11-06 13:12 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $28.56 43.94 gems $636 978 gems 22.27x 2026-11-05 15:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $28.56 43.94 gems $636 978 gems 22.27x 2026-11-03 09:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=sharp-odds) [Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) Hidden $28.56 43.94 gems $1.79 2.75 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 06:43 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) Hidden $28.56 43.94 gems $10.61 16.32 gems 0.37x 2026-11-11 06:43 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) Hidden $28.56 43.94 gems $1.79 2.75 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 06:43 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) Hidden $28.56 43.94 gems $1.79 2.75 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 06:43 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.56 43.94 gems $4.55 7 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 06:43 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) [BolpyFR](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BolpyFR) $28.56 43.94 gems $1.79 2.75 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 06:43 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.56 43.94 gems $4.55 7 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 03:04 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) Hidden $28.56 43.94 gems $1.79 2.75 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 03:04 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) [ncfoodie code DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ncfoodie%20code%20DGN) $28.56 43.94 gems $4.55 7 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 03:04 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.56 43.94 gems $24.69 37.99 gems 0.86x 2026-11-11 03:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.56 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% covert knife 5.0% classified 10.0% pink 35.0% mil spec 15.0% blue 30.0% best hit $636 (22.27x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt