--- title: "Shiny Marble case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Shiny Marble ($27.76) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 17 items with odds, observed 93.47% over 2,674 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shiny-marble rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Shiny Marble](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shiny-marble) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Shiny Marble A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shiny-marble?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shiny-marble?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shiny-marble) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shiny-marble?window=all) Price · $27.76 · 42.7 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $24.98 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.47% · 2,674 openings, odds method Variance · 26.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 78 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 270 openings · below min 7 days · 96.90% ±21.61 2,137 openings 30 days · 93.47% ±19.32 2,674 openings since tracking started · 93.47% ±19.32 2,674 openings 24.5% 86.0% 147.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shiny-marble?window=24h) | 270 | 85.81% ±60.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shiny-marble?window=7d) | 2,137 | 96.90% ±21.6 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shiny-marble) | 2,674 | 93.47% ±19.3 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shiny-marble?window=all) | 2,674 | 93.47% ±19.3 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,738 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,989 3,061 gems | 8.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,659 2,553 gems | 10.0% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.46× | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,336 2,055 gems | 10.7% | 9 | 5.5 | 1.64× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 294 | $994 1,529 gems | 13.5% | 6 | 9.3 | 0.64× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $615 946 gems | 12.3% | 13 | 13.7 | 0.95× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $538 827 gems | 10.8% | 10 | 13.7 | 0.73× | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $395 608 gems | 7.9% | 15 | 13.7 | 1.10× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $340 523 gems | 6.8% | 15 | 13.7 | 1.10× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $330 507 gems | 6.6% | 9 | 13.7 | 0.66× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $157 241 gems | 5.3% | 21 | 23.3 | 0.90× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $145 223 gems | 5.0% | 23 | 23.5 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Gold Web (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-web-foil) | 10.0% | $2.07 3.19 gems | 0.8% | 290 | 273.8 | 1.06× | | [Sticker \| Monte (Holo) \| Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monte-holo-paris-2023) | 10.0% | $1.37 2.1 gems | 0.5% | 235 | 273.8 | 0.86× | | [Sticker \| Kimberly sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kimberly) | 10.0% | $1.00 1.54 gems | 0.4% | 258 | 273.8 | 0.94× | | [Sticker \| Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) | 20.0% | $0.64 0.98 gems | 0.5% | 562 | 547.6 | 1.03× | | [Sticker \| Zeusception (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeusception-holo) | 20.0% | $0.57 0.87 gems | 0.5% | 578 | 547.6 | 1.06× | | [Sticker \| Kawaii Eyes (Glitter) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-eyes-glitter) | 25.0% | $0.41 0.63 gems | 0.4% | 685 | 684.5 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $1,989 3,061 gems 71.68x 2026-11-08 15:11 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) [BolpyFR](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BolpyFR) $27.76 42.7 gems $1,989 3,061 gems 71.68x 2026-11-05 04:20 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $1,989 3,061 gems 71.68x 2026-11-03 17:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $1,659 2,553 gems 59.78x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $1,659 2,553 gems 59.78x 2026-11-09 11:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $1,659 2,553 gems 59.78x 2026-11-08 16:49 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Pomps](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Pomps) $27.76 42.7 gems $1,659 2,553 gems 59.78x 2026-11-06 23:04 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $1,659 2,553 gems 59.78x 2026-11-05 21:35 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $1,659 2,553 gems 59.78x 2026-11-04 11:50 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $1,336 2,055 gems 48.12x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=shiny-marble) [Sticker | Zeusception (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeusception-holo) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Sticker | Zeusception (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeusception-holo) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $0.64 0.98 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $340 523 gems 12.25x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $0.64 0.98 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Sticker | Kawaii Eyes (Glitter) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-eyes-glitter) [☦︎Theta](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%98%A6%EF%B8%8ETheta) $27.76 42.7 gems $0.41 0.63 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Sticker | Zeusception (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeusception-holo) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [Sticker | Monte (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-monte-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $1.37 2.1 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $615 946 gems 22.15x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [Sticker | Red Shades (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-red-shades-foil) Hidden $27.76 42.7 gems $0.64 0.98 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $27.76 | 90.00% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 1.7% epic 0.5% gold 1.9% rare 0.9% #d32ce6 30.0% exotic 10.0% Rare 10.0% Mythical 20.0% #8847ff 25.0% best hit $1,989 (71.68x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt