--- title: "Should’ve Cashed case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Should’ve Cashed ($86.27) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 97.17% over 452 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shouldve-cashed rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Should’ve Cashed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shouldve-cashed) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Should’ve Cashed A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shouldve-cashed?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shouldve-cashed?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shouldve-cashed) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shouldve-cashed?window=all) Price · $86.27 · 133 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $77.64 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.17% · 452 openings, odds method Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 60 openings · below min 7 days · 99.40% ±23.58 410 openings 30 days · 97.17% ±22.46 452 openings since tracking started · 97.17% ±22.46 452 openings -0.5% 61.5% 123.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shouldve-cashed?window=24h) | 60 | 59.25% ±61.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shouldve-cashed?window=7d) | 410 | 99.40% ±23.6 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shouldve-cashed) | 452 | 97.17% ±22.5 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/shouldve-cashed?window=all) | 452 | 97.17% ±22.5 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 452 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 40 | $1,309 2,014 gems | 42.2% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 40 | $333 512 gems | 10.7% | 19 | 11.3 | 1.68× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $209 322 gems | 13.5% | 18 | 22.6 | 0.80× | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $175 269 gems | 11.3% | 23 | 22.6 | 1.02× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $76.70 118 gems | 9.9% | 46 | 45.2 | 1.02× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 10.0% | $45.52 70.03 gems | 5.9% | 50 | 45.2 | 1.11× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $20.25 31.15 gems | 3.9% | 66 | 67.8 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 15.0% | $6.92 10.65 gems | 1.3% | 65 | 67.8 | 0.96× | | [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) | 15.0% | $4.19 6.45 gems | 0.8% | 67 | 67.8 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $2.30 3.54 gems | 0.6% | 86 | 90.4 | 0.95× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [motsibaerli](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/motsibaerli) $86.27 133 gems $1,309 2,014 gems 15.18x 2026-11-08 15:39 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $1,309 2,014 gems 15.18x 2026-11-08 01:20 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $1,309 2,014 gems 15.18x 2026-11-08 01:20 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $1,309 2,014 gems 15.18x 2026-11-08 01:12 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $1,309 2,014 gems 15.18x 2026-11-08 01:07 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $1,309 2,014 gems 15.18x 2026-11-08 00:54 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [conq](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/conq) $86.27 133 gems $1,309 2,014 gems 15.18x 2026-11-08 00:46 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $1,309 2,014 gems 15.18x 2026-11-05 14:50 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $1,309 2,014 gems 15.18x 2026-11-05 00:41 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $1,309 2,014 gems 15.18x 2026-11-05 00:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=shouldve-cashed) [SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $20.25 31.15 gems 0.23x 2026-11-10 23:03 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $333 512 gems 3.86x 2026-11-10 23:03 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $76.70 118 gems 0.89x 2026-11-10 23:03 UTC [FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) [Helqxz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Helqxz) $86.27 133 gems $45.52 70.03 gems 0.53x 2026-11-10 23:03 UTC [SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $20.25 31.15 gems 0.23x 2026-11-10 20:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $6.92 10.65 gems 0.08x 2026-11-10 20:10 UTC [MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $4.19 6.45 gems 0.05x 2026-11-10 20:10 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $2.30 3.54 gems 0.03x 2026-11-10 20:10 UTC [FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) Hidden $86.27 133 gems $45.52 70.03 gems 0.53x 2026-11-10 20:10 UTC [SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-minimal-wear) [☠](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%98%A0) $86.27 133 gems $20.25 31.15 gems 0.23x 2026-11-10 20:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $86.27 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.0% rare 5.0% extraordinary 10.0% Legendary 15.0% classified 15.0% violet 15.0% #d32ee6 20.0% best hit $1,309 (15.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt