--- title: "Sidearm Showdown case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sidearm Showdown ($16.55) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 9 items with odds, observed 88.66% over 2,043 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sidearm-showdown rendered: 2026-11-11T14:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Sidearm Showdown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sidearm-showdown) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Sidearm Showdown A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sidearm-showdown?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sidearm-showdown?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sidearm-showdown) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sidearm-showdown?window=all) Price · $16.55 · 25.46 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $14.89 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.66% · 2,043 openings, odds method Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 78.46% ±17.92 239 openings 7 days · 87.09% ±6.56 1,782 openings 30 days · 88.66% ±6.13 2,043 openings since tracking started · 88.66% ±6.13 2,043 openings 60.0% 78.5% 97.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sidearm-showdown?window=24h) | 239 | 78.46% ±17.9 | −1.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sidearm-showdown?window=7d) | 1,782 | 87.09% ±6.56 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sidearm-showdown) | 2,043 | 88.66% ±6.13 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sidearm-showdown?window=all) | 2,043 | 88.66% ±6.13 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,073 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 10.0% | $80.44 124 gems | 54.0% | 194 | 207.3 | 0.94× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $27.79 42.75 gems | 18.7% | 202 | 207.3 | 0.97× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 10.0% | $16.45 25.3 gems | 11.0% | 222 | 207.3 | 1.07× | | [P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 10.0% | $10.78 16.59 gems | 7.2% | 234 | 207.3 | 1.13× | | [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 10.0% | $6.79 10.44 gems | 4.6% | 220 | 207.3 | 1.06× | | [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $3.52 5.42 gems | 2.4% | 189 | 207.3 | 0.91× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $1.55 2.39 gems | 1.0% | 209 | 207.3 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $0.82 1.26 gems | 0.6% | 185 | 207.3 | 0.89× | | [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.38 0.59 gems | 0.5% | 418 | 414.6 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=sidearm-showdown) [Five-SeveN | Buddy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.55 25.46 gems $0.38 0.59 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.55 25.46 gems $27.79 42.75 gems 1.68x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Buddy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.55 25.46 gems $0.38 0.59 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $16.55 25.46 gems $16.45 25.3 gems 0.99x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.55 25.46 gems $1.55 2.39 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Buddy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-battle-scarred) [Jesse](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Jesse) $16.55 25.46 gems $0.38 0.59 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.55 25.46 gems $1.55 2.39 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) Hidden $16.55 25.46 gems $6.79 10.44 gems 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [Five-SeveN | Buddy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.55 25.46 gems $0.38 0.59 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) Hidden $16.55 25.46 gems $6.79 10.44 gems 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $16.55 | 89.98% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 30.0% restricted 40.0% #d32ee6 10.0% pink 10.0% industrial 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt