--- title: "Siege case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Siege ($13.84) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 8 items with odds, observed 84.98% over 1,494 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/siege rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Siege](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/siege) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Siege A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/siege?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/siege?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/siege) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/siege?window=all) Price · $13.84 · 21.29 gems Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $12.45 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.98% · 1,494 openings, odds method Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 118.62% ±32.28 221 openings 7 days · 85.34% ±13.34 1,294 openings 30 days · 84.98% ±12.41 1,494 openings since tracking started · 84.98% ±12.41 1,494 openings 71.5% 111.5% 151.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/siege?window=24h) | 221 | 118.62% ±32.3 | +1.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/siege?window=7d) | 1,294 | 85.34% ±13.3 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/siege) | 1,494 | 84.98% ±12.4 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/siege?window=all) | 1,494 | 84.98% ±12.4 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,528 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $224 344 gems | 35.9% | 28 | 30.6 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $68.06 105 gems | 21.9% | 57 | 61.1 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $38.47 59.18 gems | 18.5% | 94 | 91.7 | 1.03× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $17.06 26.25 gems | 11.0% | 104 | 122.2 | 0.85× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.71 7.25 gems | 3.8% | 151 | 152.8 | 0.99× | | [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 20.0% | $3.41 5.24 gems | 5.5% | 308 | 305.6 | 1.01× | | [Dual Berettas \| Briar (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-briar-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.65 2.54 gems | 2.7% | 335 | 305.6 | 1.10× | | [P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.33 0.51 gems | 0.8% | 451 | 458.4 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=siege) [Dual Berettas | Briar (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-briar-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.84 21.29 gems $1.65 2.54 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) Hidden $13.84 21.29 gems $4.71 7.25 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [Dual Berettas | Briar (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-briar-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.84 21.29 gems $1.65 2.54 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) [warrior](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/warrior) $13.84 21.29 gems $68.06 105 gems 4.92x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $13.84 21.29 gems $17.06 26.25 gems 1.23x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.84 21.29 gems $38.47 59.18 gems 2.78x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [Dual Berettas | Briar (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-briar-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.84 21.29 gems $1.65 2.54 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [MP7 | Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) Hidden $13.84 21.29 gems $3.41 5.24 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [MP7 | Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) Hidden $13.84 21.29 gems $3.41 5.24 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC [P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) Hidden $13.84 21.29 gems $0.33 0.51 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.84 | 89.97% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 12.0% classified 24.0% covert 14.0% consumer 20.0% Mil Spec Grade 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt