--- title: "Silk Road case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Silk Road ($13.38) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 86.73% over 1,677 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/silk-road rendered: 2026-11-11T19:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Silk Road](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/silk-road) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Silk Road A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/silk-road?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/silk-road?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/silk-road) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/silk-road?window=all) Price · $13.38 · 20.58 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $12.04 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.73% · 1,677 openings, odds method Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.22% ±17.78 488 openings 7 days · 90.18% ±10.34 1,442 openings 30 days · 86.73% ±9.59 1,677 openings since tracking started · 86.73% ±9.59 1,677 openings 66.0% 84.3% 102.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/silk-road?window=24h) | 488 | 84.22% ±17.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/silk-road?window=7d) | 1,442 | 90.18% ±10.3 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/silk-road) | 1,677 | 86.73% ±9.59 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/silk-road?window=all) | 1,677 | 86.73% ±9.59 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,681 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $155 239 gems | 12.9% | 16 | 16.8 | 0.95× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $112 173 gems | 37.4% | 59 | 67.2 | 0.88× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $26.95 41.46 gems | 11.2% | 79 | 84.0 | 0.94× | | [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 10.0% | $26.01 40.02 gems | 21.6% | 191 | 168.1 | 1.14× | | [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) | 17.0% | $7.62 11.72 gems | 10.8% | 278 | 285.8 | 0.97× | | [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 17.0% | $4.07 6.26 gems | 5.7% | 268 | 285.8 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $0.16 0.24 gems | 0.3% | 380 | 369.8 | 1.03× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-factory-new) | 24.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.1% | 410 | 403.5 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=silk-road) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $13.38 20.58 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $13.38 20.58 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC [UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) Hidden $13.38 20.58 gems $26.01 40.02 gems 1.94x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC [USP-S | Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) Hidden $13.38 20.58 gems $7.62 11.72 gems 0.57x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC [AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) Hidden $13.38 20.58 gems $4.07 6.26 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC [USP-S | Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) [Caveman.](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Caveman.) $13.38 20.58 gems $7.62 11.72 gems 0.57x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC [AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) Hidden $13.38 20.58 gems $4.07 6.26 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [USP-S | Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) Hidden $13.38 20.58 gems $7.62 11.72 gems 0.57x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) Hidden $13.38 20.58 gems $4.07 6.26 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $13.38 20.58 gems $112 173 gems 8.40x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.38 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #d32ee6 1.0% covert 21.0% classified 5.0% violet 10.0% industrial 39.0% consumer 24.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt