--- title: "Skill Issue case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Skill Issue ($11.70) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 12 items with odds, observed 89.02% over 10.3K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/skill-issue rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Skill Issue](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/skill-issue) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Skill Issue A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/skill-issue?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/skill-issue?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/skill-issue) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/skill-issue?window=all) Price · $11.70 · 18 gems Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $10.52 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.02% · 10.3K openings, odds method Variance · 803.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 2,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1,890 openings · below min 7 days · 9,131 openings · below min 30 days · 89.02% ±54.67 10.3K openings since tracking started · 89.02% ±54.67 10.3K openings -0.5% 113.5% 227.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/skill-issue?window=24h) | 1,890 | 98.94% ±127.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/skill-issue?window=7d) | 9,131 | 92.80% ±58.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/skill-issue) | 10.3K | 89.02% ±54.7 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/skill-issue?window=all) | 10.3K | 89.02% ±54.7 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $25.6K 39,441 gems | 24.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $16.3K 25,000 gems | 15.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $10.2K 15,622 gems | 9.6% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $4,940 7,600 gems | 9.4% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.44× | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,804 2,775 gems | 6.9% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× | | [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $796 1,225 gems | 3.8% | 2 | 5.2 | 0.38× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $624 960 gems | 8.3% | 17 | 14.6 | 1.17× | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $452 695 gems | 6.4% | 14 | 15.6 | 0.90× | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro \| Katowice 2014 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-katowice-2014) | 1 in 588 | $355 546 gems | 5.7% | 18 | 17.7 | 1.02× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Creme Pinstripe (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-creme-pinstripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $213 327 gems | 4.0% | 20 | 20.8 | 0.96× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $104 160 gems | 2.0% | 17 | 20.8 | 0.82× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 99.0% | $0.43 0.66 gems | 4.0% | 10,325 | 10317.8 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $25.6K 39,441 gems 2,191x 2026-11-09 14:25 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $16.3K 25,000 gems 1,389x 2026-11-10 19:21 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $10.2K 15,622 gems 867.9x 2026-11-08 22:59 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $4,940 7,600 gems 422.2x 2026-11-09 14:24 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $4,940 7,600 gems 422.2x 2026-11-09 02:32 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $4,940 7,600 gems 422.2x 2026-11-04 05:37 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $1,804 2,775 gems 154.2x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $1,804 2,775 gems 154.2x 2026-11-09 04:20 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $1,804 2,775 gems 154.2x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $796 1,225 gems 68.06x 2026-11-09 02:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=skill-issue) [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $0.43 0.66 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $0.43 0.66 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $0.43 0.66 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $0.43 0.66 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $0.43 0.66 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $0.43 0.66 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $0.43 0.66 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $0.43 0.66 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $0.43 0.66 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $11.70 18 gems $0.43 0.66 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $11.70 | 89.95% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.4% legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% violet 0.2% epic 0.2% rare 0.2% Mythical 99.0% best hit $25.6K (2,191x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt