--- title: "Sky Dreams case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sky Dreams ($4.65) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.90% from 12 items with odds, observed 90.33% over 9,658 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sky-dreams rendered: 2026-11-11T18:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Sky Dreams](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sky-dreams) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Sky Dreams A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sky-dreams?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sky-dreams?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sky-dreams) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sky-dreams?window=all) Price · $4.65 · 7.16 gems Advertised RTP · 89.90% · EV $4.18 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.33% · 9,658 openings, odds method Variance · 32.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 35 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 102.18% ±39.75 799 openings 7 days · 85.98% ±12.73 7,791 openings 30 days · 90.33% ±11.43 9,658 openings since tracking started · 90.33% ±11.43 9,658 openings 62.0% 102.3% 142.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sky-dreams?window=24h) | 799 | 102.18% ±39.7 | +0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sky-dreams?window=7d) | 7,791 | 85.98% ±12.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sky-dreams) | 9,658 | 90.33% ±11.4 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sky-dreams?window=all) | 9,658 | 90.33% ±11.4 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,533 5,436 gems | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $402 619 gems | 9.6% | 6 | 10.0 | 0.60× | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $339 522 gems | 16.2% | 22 | 20.1 | 1.09× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $204 314 gems | 21.9% | 51 | 45.2 | 1.13× | | [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $21.55 33.15 gems | 10.8% | 218 | 211.0 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $21.36 32.86 gems | 15.3% | 294 | 301.4 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.57 3.96 gems | 9.2% | 1,454 | 1507.2 | 0.96× | | [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.31 2.02 gems | 4.7% | 1,528 | 1507.2 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.03 1.59 gems | 3.7% | 1,561 | 1507.2 | 1.04× | | [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.88 1.36 gems | 3.2% | 1,524 | 1507.2 | 1.01× | | [M249 \| Warbird (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-warbird-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.57 0.87 gems | 2.0% | 1,440 | 1507.2 | 0.96× | | [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) | 19.1% | $0.53 0.81 gems | 2.4% | 1,950 | 1924.2 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $402 619 gems 86.47x 2026-11-11 03:17 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $402 619 gems 86.47x 2026-11-06 18:50 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $402 619 gems 86.47x 2026-11-05 09:35 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $402 619 gems 86.47x 2026-11-03 21:33 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $402 619 gems 86.47x 2026-11-03 08:04 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $402 619 gems 86.47x 2026-11-03 07:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) [Gralex27](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Gralex27) $4.65 7.16 gems $339 522 gems 72.85x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC [M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $339 522 gems 72.85x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $339 522 gems 72.85x 2026-11-10 14:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $339 522 gems 72.85x 2026-11-10 05:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=sky-dreams) [PP-Bizon | High Roller (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $2.57 3.96 gems 0.55x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC [P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) [mou](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/mou) $4.65 7.16 gems $1.31 2.02 gems 0.28x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC [M249 | Warbird (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-warbird-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC [P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $1.31 2.02 gems 0.28x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC [FAMAS | Spitfire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $21.55 33.15 gems 4.63x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC [M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) [Gralex27](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Gralex27) $4.65 7.16 gems $339 522 gems 72.85x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC [Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $0.53 0.81 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [M249 | Warbird (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-warbird-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [PP-Bizon | High Roller (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $2.57 3.96 gems 0.55x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC [M249 | Warbird (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-warbird-factory-new) Hidden $4.65 7.16 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 17:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.65 | 89.90% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% rare 0.1% restricted 36.4% classified 18.4% violet 15.0% Common 15.0% mil spec 15.0% best hit $402 (86.47x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.90 on average: an expected loss of $10.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt