--- title: "Attack case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Attack ($35.60) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.98% over 868 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smackdowness rendered: 2026-11-11T18:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Attack](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smackdowness) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Attack A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smackdowness?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smackdowness?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smackdowness) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smackdowness?window=all) Price · $35.60 · 54.77 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $32.04 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.98% · 868 openings, odds method Variance · 6.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 60 openings · below min 7 days · 87.69% ±18.86 688 openings 30 days · 89.98% ±16.80 868 openings since tracking started · 89.98% ±16.80 868 openings -0.5% 53.5% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smackdowness?window=24h) | 60 | 41.37% ±63.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smackdowness?window=7d) | 688 | 87.69% ±18.9 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smackdowness) | 868 | 89.98% ±16.8 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smackdowness?window=all) | 868 | 89.98% ±16.8 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 892 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $640 985 gems | 20.0% | 12 | 8.9 | 1.35× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $423 650 gems | 26.4% | 13 | 17.8 | 0.73× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $152 233 gems | 14.2% | 31 | 26.8 | 1.16× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $112 173 gems | 14.0% | 30 | 35.7 | 0.84× | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $43.08 66.28 gems | 6.7% | 57 | 44.6 | 1.28× | | [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) | 10.0% | $37.06 57.01 gems | 11.6% | 78 | 89.2 | 0.87× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 15.0% | $6.80 10.46 gems | 3.2% | 133 | 133.8 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $4.05 6.23 gems | 2.5% | 182 | 178.4 | 1.02× | | [MP7 \| Asterion (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.49 2.29 gems | 0.9% | 181 | 178.4 | 1.01× | | [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.78 1.2 gems | 0.5% | 175 | 178.4 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $640 985 gems 17.98x 2026-11-09 18:50 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [oron](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/oron) $35.60 54.77 gems $640 985 gems 17.98x 2026-11-08 16:44 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $640 985 gems 17.98x 2026-11-08 15:36 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $640 985 gems 17.98x 2026-11-07 14:32 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [code kujtaa 200$gw+200$lb](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/code%20kujtaa%20200%24gw%2B200%24lb) $35.60 54.77 gems $640 985 gems 17.98x 2026-11-06 22:57 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $640 985 gems 17.98x 2026-11-06 01:28 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $640 985 gems 17.98x 2026-11-05 17:54 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [elfanta](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/elfanta) $35.60 54.77 gems $640 985 gems 17.98x 2026-11-04 20:49 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $640 985 gems 17.98x 2026-11-04 20:47 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $640 985 gems 17.98x 2026-11-04 16:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=smackdowness) [UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $0.78 1.2 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $4.05 6.23 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC [UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $0.78 1.2 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC [MP7 | Asterion (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-minimal-wear) [Pejchyn](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Pejchyn) $35.60 54.77 gems $1.49 2.29 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $6.80 10.46 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-well-worn) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $112 173 gems 3.16x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $4.05 6.23 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [MP7 | Asterion (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-minimal-wear) [Nami-Swan!](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Nami-Swan!) $35.60 54.77 gems $1.49 2.29 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [MP7 | Asterion (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $1.49 2.29 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC [MP7 | Asterion (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.60 54.77 gems $1.49 2.29 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $35.60 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed sunny 3.0% extraordinary 7.0% classified 5.0% violet 10.0% pink 15.0% #d32ee6 20.0% consumer 20.0% restricted 20.0% best hit $640 (17.98x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt