--- title: "Small Fish case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Small Fish ($0.96) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.87% from 5 items with odds, observed 89.60% over 24.8K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/small-fish rendered: 2026-11-11T13:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Small Fish](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/small-fish) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Small Fish A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/small-fish?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/small-fish?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/small-fish) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/small-fish?window=all) Price · $0.96 · 1.47 gems Advertised RTP · 89.87% · EV $0.86 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.60% · 24.8K openings, odds method Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 55.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.13% ±7.80 3,506 openings 7 days · 89.18% ±3.23 20.4K openings 30 days · 89.60% ±2.93 24.8K openings since tracking started · 89.60% ±2.93 24.8K openings 82.5% 91.0% 99.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/small-fish?window=24h) | 3,506 | 91.13% ±7.80 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/small-fish?window=7d) | 20.4K | 89.18% ±3.23 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/small-fish) | 24.8K | 89.60% ±2.93 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/small-fish?window=all) | 24.8K | 89.60% ±2.93 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.3K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $44.63 68.66 gems | 10.4% | 50 | 50.6 | 0.99× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $4.93 7.59 gems | 27.6% | 1,213 | 1215.3 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) | 15.0% | $1.54 2.37 gems | 26.9% | 3,753 | 3798.0 | 0.99× | | [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.09 1.68 gems | 31.8% | 6,333 | 6329.9 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) | 55.0% | $0.05 0.08 gems | 3.3% | 13,971 | 13926.1 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=small-fish) [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) Hidden $0.96 1.47 gems $1.54 2.37 gems 1.61x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) [Guigz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Guigz) $0.96 1.47 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) Hidden $0.96 1.47 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC [Tec-9 | Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-well-worn) [Guigz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Guigz) $0.96 1.47 gems $4.93 7.59 gems 5.16x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) Hidden $0.96 1.47 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) Hidden $0.96 1.47 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) Hidden $0.96 1.47 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) Hidden $0.96 1.47 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) Hidden $0.96 1.47 gems $1.09 1.68 gems 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) [onKick - The\_Facel3ss](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/onKick%20-%20The_Facel3ss) $0.96 1.47 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.96 | 89.87% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% classified 4.8% #d32ee6 15.0% mil spec 25.0% #4b69ff 55.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.87 on average: an expected loss of $10.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt