--- title: "SMG Abuser case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SMG Abuser ($62.80) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 11 items with odds, observed 84.85% over 794 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smg-abuser rendered: 2026-11-11T19:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [SMG Abuser](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smg-abuser) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · SMG Abuser A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smg-abuser?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smg-abuser?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smg-abuser) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smg-abuser?window=all) Price · $62.80 · 96.62 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $56.52 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.85% · 794 openings, odds method Variance · 7.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 73 openings · below min 7 days · 82.56% ±20.00 699 openings 30 days · 84.85% ±18.76 794 openings since tracking started · 84.85% ±18.76 794 openings 21.5% 84.0% 146.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smg-abuser?window=24h) | 73 | 84.20% ±61.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smg-abuser?window=7d) | 699 | 82.56% ±20.0 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smg-abuser) | 794 | 84.85% ±18.8 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smg-abuser?window=all) | 794 | 84.85% ±18.8 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 794 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,489 2,290 gems | 26.3% | 9 | 7.9 | 1.13× | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $435 670 gems | 23.1% | 16 | 23.8 | 0.67× | | [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $239 368 gems | 12.7% | 22 | 23.8 | 0.92× | | [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $192 296 gems | 10.2% | 20 | 23.8 | 0.84× | | [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $134 207 gems | 11.9% | 43 | 39.7 | 1.08× | | [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $68.45 105 gems | 6.1% | 40 | 39.7 | 1.01× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $32.56 50.09 gems | 2.9% | 36 | 39.7 | 0.91× | | [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $13.91 21.4 gems | 3.7% | 126 | 119.1 | 1.06× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 20.0% | $6.12 9.41 gems | 2.2% | 156 | 158.8 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Minimal Wear) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $2.04 3.14 gems | 0.7% | 161 | 158.8 | 1.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Allure (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.73 1.12 gems | 0.3% | 165 | 158.8 | 1.04× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) [PEPE](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/PEPE) $62.80 96.62 gems $1,489 2,290 gems 23.70x 2026-11-08 14:08 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $1,489 2,290 gems 23.70x 2026-11-06 05:54 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $1,489 2,290 gems 23.70x 2026-11-05 21:05 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $1,489 2,290 gems 23.70x 2026-11-05 17:56 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $1,489 2,290 gems 23.70x 2026-11-05 17:36 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $1,489 2,290 gems 23.70x 2026-11-05 17:32 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $1,489 2,290 gems 23.70x 2026-11-05 03:45 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $1,489 2,290 gems 23.70x 2026-11-04 11:50 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $1,489 2,290 gems 23.70x 2026-11-03 20:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=smg-abuser) [MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-factory-new) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $0.73 1.12 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC [PP-Bizon | Bamboo Print (Minimal Wear) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $2.04 3.14 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC [MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $13.91 21.4 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC [MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $13.91 21.4 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC [PP-Bizon | Bamboo Print (Minimal Wear) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $2.04 3.14 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) [\[MLP\] Pinkie Pie](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%5BMLP%5D%20%20Pinkie%20Pie) $62.80 96.62 gems $6.12 9.41 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC [MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $13.91 21.4 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC [PP-Bizon | Bamboo Print (Minimal Wear) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $2.04 3.14 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC [MP7 | Teal Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-factory-new) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $68.45 105 gems 1.09x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $62.80 96.62 gems $6.12 9.41 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $62.80 | 89.99% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 14.0% restricted 6.0% #4b69ff 5.0% blue 15.0% covert 20.0% #B0C3D9 20.0% Mythical 20.0% best hit $1,489 (23.70x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt