--- title: "Smoked case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Smoked ($20.48) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 9 items with odds, observed 101.27% over 2,443 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smoked rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Smoked](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smoked) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Smoked A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smoked?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smoked?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smoked) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smoked?window=all) Price · $20.48 · 31.5 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $18.42 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.27% · 2,443 openings, odds method Variance · 16.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.29% ±45.67 294 openings 7 days · 100.35% ±17.52 1,997 openings 30 days · 101.27% ±15.84 2,443 openings since tracking started · 101.27% ±15.84 2,443 openings 49.0% 95.3% 141.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smoked?window=24h) | 294 | 95.29% ±45.7 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smoked?window=7d) | 1,997 | 100.35% ±17.5 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smoked) | 2,443 | 101.27% ±15.8 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smoked?window=all) | 2,443 | 101.27% ±15.8 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,473 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $490 753 gems | 53.1% | 61 | 49.5 | 1.23× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $273 420 gems | 44.5% | 74 | 74.2 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Smoke Criminal sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-smoke-criminal) | 10.0% | $1.68 2.58 gems | 0.9% | 244 | 247.3 | 0.99× | | [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.49 2.3 gems | 0.8% | 263 | 247.3 | 1.06× | | [Sticker \| Lost In Smoke (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lost-in-smoke-foil) | 10.0% | $0.73 1.12 gems | 0.4% | 236 | 247.3 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| Pushing Smokes (Glitter) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pushing-smokes-glitter) | 10.0% | $0.30 0.46 gems | 0.2% | 237 | 247.3 | 0.96× | | [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.05 0.08 gems | 0.0% | 364 | 370.9 | 0.98× | | [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.0% | 501 | 494.6 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.0% | 493 | 494.6 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=smoked) [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-factory-new) Hidden $20.48 31.5 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-factory-new) Hidden $20.48 31.5 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [Sticker | Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) Hidden $20.48 31.5 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [MP7 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.48 31.5 gems $1.49 2.3 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-factory-new) Hidden $20.48 31.5 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) [TwitchBaleszko](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TwitchBaleszko) $20.48 31.5 gems $490 753 gems 23.91x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [Sticker | Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) Hidden $20.48 31.5 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-factory-new) Hidden $20.48 31.5 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Sticker | Lost In Smoke (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lost-in-smoke-foil) Hidden $20.48 31.5 gems $0.73 1.12 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.48 31.5 gems $490 753 gems 23.91x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $20.48 | 89.98% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Legendary 2.0% extraordinary 3.0% blue 10.0% industrial 10.0% Exotic 10.0% Mythical 10.0% #b0c3d9 15.0% consumer 20.0% High Grade 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt