--- title: "Smugglers Loadout case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Smugglers Loadout ($13.13) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 8 items with odds, observed 94.78% over 749 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smugglers-loadout rendered: 2026-11-11T19:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Smugglers Loadout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smugglers-loadout) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Smugglers Loadout A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smugglers-loadout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smugglers-loadout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smugglers-loadout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smugglers-loadout?window=all) Price · $13.13 · 20.2 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $11.81 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.78% · 749 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.88% ±13.46 174 openings 7 days · 95.15% ±7.31 590 openings 30 days · 94.78% ±6.49 749 openings since tracking started · 94.78% ±6.49 749 openings 76.0% 90.0% 104.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smugglers-loadout?window=24h) | 174 | 89.88% ±13.5 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smugglers-loadout?window=7d) | 590 | 95.15% ±7.31 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smugglers-loadout) | 749 | 94.78% ±6.49 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/smugglers-loadout?window=all) | 749 | 94.78% ±6.49 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 776 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cartel-factory-new) | 10.0% | $33.80 52 gems | 28.6% | 87 | 77.6 | 1.12× | | [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) | 10.0% | $26.53 40.81 gems | 22.5% | 87 | 77.6 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-heirloom-factory-new) | 10.0% | $24.05 37 gems | 20.4% | 80 | 77.6 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 10.0% | $17.44 26.83 gems | 14.8% | 71 | 77.6 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Agent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) | 15.0% | $6.83 10.51 gems | 8.7% | 108 | 116.4 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.42 3.73 gems | 3.1% | 125 | 116.4 | 1.07× | | [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.11 1.7 gems | 1.4% | 114 | 116.4 | 0.98× | | [M249 \| Warbird (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-warbird-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.53 0.81 gems | 0.7% | 104 | 116.4 | 0.89× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=smugglers-loadout) [StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) Hidden $13.13 20.2 gems $6.83 10.51 gems 0.52x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC [SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $13.13 20.2 gems $1.11 1.7 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC [StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) Hidden $13.13 20.2 gems $6.83 10.51 gems 0.52x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC [SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $13.13 20.2 gems $1.11 1.7 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) Hidden $13.13 20.2 gems $17.44 26.83 gems 1.33x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC [SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-factory-new) [LouisInRussian](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/LouisInRussian) $13.13 20.2 gems $1.11 1.7 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-factory-new) Hidden $13.13 20.2 gems $2.42 3.73 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [M249 | Warbird (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-warbird-factory-new) Hidden $13.13 20.2 gems $0.53 0.81 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-heirloom-factory-new) Hidden $13.13 20.2 gems $24.05 37 gems 1.83x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-factory-new) Hidden $13.13 20.2 gems $2.42 3.73 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.13 | 89.98% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 10.0% industrial 10.0% restricted 20.0% Restricted 15.0% Mil Spec Grade 15.0% consumer 15.0% mil spec 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt