--- title: "Snowballer case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Snowballer ($18.34) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.26% from 8 items with odds, observed 80.81% over 2,002 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/snowballer rendered: 2026-11-11T16:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Snowballer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/snowballer) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Snowballer A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/snowballer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/snowballer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/snowballer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/snowballer?window=all) Price · $18.34 · 28.21 gems Advertised RTP · 89.26% · EV $16.37 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.81% · 2,002 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.09% ±17.63 574 openings 7 days · 78.68% ±10.03 1,774 openings 30 days · 80.81% ±9.44 2,002 openings since tracking started · 80.81% ±9.44 2,002 openings 59.0% 77.3% 95.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/snowballer?window=24h) | 574 | 77.09% ±17.6 | −1.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/snowballer?window=7d) | 1,774 | 78.68% ±10.0 | −2.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/snowballer) | 2,002 | 80.81% ±9.44 | −1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/snowballer?window=all) | 2,002 | 80.81% ±9.44 | −1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,056 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $376 578 gems | 23.0% | 11 | 20.6 | 0.54× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $109 168 gems | 6.7% | 20 | 20.6 | 0.97× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $85.48 132 gems | 5.2% | 21 | 20.6 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $62.52 96.19 gems | 11.5% | 70 | 61.7 | 1.13× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $18.73 28.81 gems | 16.0% | 278 | 287.8 | 0.97× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 20.0% | $12.88 19.82 gems | 15.7% | 424 | 411.2 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $8.87 13.65 gems | 10.8% | 384 | 411.2 | 0.93× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 40.0% | $4.53 6.97 gems | 11.1% | 848 | 822.4 | 1.03× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=snowballer) [FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) Hidden $18.34 28.21 gems $12.88 19.82 gems 0.70x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.34 28.21 gems $8.87 13.65 gems 0.48x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $18.34 28.21 gems $4.53 6.97 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) Hidden $18.34 28.21 gems $12.88 19.82 gems 0.70x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $18.34 28.21 gems $4.53 6.97 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) [TTHD](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TTHD) $18.34 28.21 gems $62.52 96.19 gems 3.41x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $18.34 28.21 gems $4.53 6.97 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.34 28.21 gems $18.73 28.81 gems 1.02x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $18.34 28.21 gems $62.52 96.19 gems 3.41x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $18.34 28.21 gems $4.53 6.97 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $18.34 | 89.26% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 41.0% covert knife 2.0% covert 57.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.26 on average: an expected loss of $10.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt