--- title: "So Lit case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "So Lit ($31.36) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 80.59% over 4,150 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/so-lit rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [So Lit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/so-lit) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · So Lit A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/so-lit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/so-lit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/so-lit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/so-lit?window=all) Price · $31.36 · 48.24 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $28.22 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.59% · 4,150 openings, odds method Variance · 77.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 167 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 549 openings · below min 7 days · 78.95% ±29.25 3,495 openings 30 days · 80.59% ±26.84 4,150 openings since tracking started · 80.59% ±26.84 4,150 openings 21.0% 95.5% 170.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/so-lit?window=24h) | 549 | 95.41% ±73.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/so-lit?window=7d) | 3,495 | 78.95% ±29.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/so-lit) | 4,150 | 80.59% ±26.8 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/so-lit?window=all) | 4,150 | 80.59% ±26.8 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,195 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,115 10,946 gems | 25.2% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $3,179 4,890 gems | 22.5% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.60× | | [Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 333 | $1,170 1,800 gems | 12.4% | 12 | 12.6 | 0.95× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $511 786 gems | 7.2% | 28 | 16.8 | 1.67× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $254 391 gems | 9.0% | 53 | 42.0 | 1.26× | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $169 260 gems | 12.0% | 81 | 83.9 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $46.74 71.91 gems | 8.3% | 187 | 209.8 | 0.89× | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $12.90 19.85 gems | 2.7% | 242 | 251.7 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Lit (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lit-holo) | 85.0% | $0.19 0.29 gems | 0.6% | 3,584 | 3565.8 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $7,115 10,946 gems 226.9x 2026-11-10 23:08 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $7,115 10,946 gems 226.9x 2026-11-06 22:14 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $7,115 10,946 gems 226.9x 2026-11-04 12:54 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) [conq](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/conq) $31.36 48.24 gems $3,179 4,890 gems 101.4x 2026-11-09 05:24 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $3,179 4,890 gems 101.4x 2026-11-05 19:22 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) [Senor Bazsix](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Senor%20Bazsix) $31.36 48.24 gems $3,179 4,890 gems 101.4x 2026-11-05 12:22 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $3,179 4,890 gems 101.4x 2026-11-04 18:56 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $3,179 4,890 gems 101.4x 2026-11-03 22:48 UTC [Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 37.31x 2026-11-10 20:59 UTC [Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 37.31x 2026-11-10 00:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=so-lit) [Sticker | Lit (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lit-holo) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $0.19 0.29 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Sticker | Lit (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lit-holo) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $0.19 0.29 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Sticker | Lit (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lit-holo) [Moncler](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Moncler) $31.36 48.24 gems $0.19 0.29 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Sticker | Lit (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lit-holo) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $0.19 0.29 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Sticker | Lit (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lit-holo) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $0.19 0.29 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $46.74 71.91 gems 1.49x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Sticker | Lit (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lit-holo) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $0.19 0.29 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Sticker | Lit (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lit-holo) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $0.19 0.29 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Sticker | Lit (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lit-holo) [amarilo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/amarilo) $31.36 48.24 gems $0.19 0.29 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Sticker | Lit (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lit-holo) Hidden $31.36 48.24 gems $0.19 0.29 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $31.36 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.1% legendary 0.2% Extraordinary 0.3% covert 0.4% sunny 1.0% restricted 7.0% mil spec 6.0% Mythical 85.0% best hit $7,115 (226.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt