--- title: "Splish Splash case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Splish Splash ($8.90) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 10 items with odds, observed 102.67% over 3,098 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/splish-splash rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Splish Splash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/splish-splash) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Splish Splash A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/splish-splash?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/splish-splash?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/splish-splash) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/splish-splash?window=all) Price · $8.90 · 13.69 gems Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $8.00 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.67% · 3,098 openings, odds method Variance · 7.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.22% ±28.18 380 openings 7 days · 105.51% ±10.39 2,794 openings 30 days · 102.67% ±9.87 3,098 openings since tracking started · 102.67% ±9.87 3,098 openings 54.5% 85.5% 116.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.96% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.80% – 112.54%, 3,098 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/splish-splash?window=24h) | 380 | 83.22% ±28.2 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/splish-splash?window=7d) | 2,794 | 105.51% ±10.4 | +2.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/splish-splash) | 3,098 | 102.67% ±9.87 | +2.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/splish-splash?window=all) | 3,098 | 102.67% ±9.87 | +2.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,120 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $224 344 gems | 14.0% | 19 | 15.6 | 1.22× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $156 240 gems | 19.5% | 43 | 31.2 | 1.38× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $93.43 144 gems | 11.7% | 37 | 31.2 | 1.19× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $48.46 74.55 gems | 12.1% | 62 | 62.4 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $42.30 65.08 gems | 10.6% | 66 | 62.4 | 1.06× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $16.85 25.92 gems | 10.5% | 169 | 156.0 | 1.08× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.70 11.85 gems | 9.6% | 302 | 312.0 | 0.97× | | [MP7 \| Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.21 4.94 gems | 8.0% | 617 | 624.0 | 0.99× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Water Gun graffiti · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-water-gun) | 25.0% | $1.11 1.7 gems | 3.5% | 778 | 780.0 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Hydro Wave sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hydro-wave) | 33.5% | $0.14 0.21 gems | 0.6% | 1,027 | 1045.2 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=splish-splash) [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $8.90 13.69 gems $16.85 25.92 gems 1.89x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Water Gun graffiti · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-water-gun) Hidden $8.90 13.69 gems $1.11 1.7 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [MP7 | Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) Hidden $8.90 13.69 gems $3.21 4.94 gems 0.36x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [MP7 | Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) Hidden $8.90 13.69 gems $3.21 4.94 gems 0.36x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Water Gun graffiti · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-water-gun) Hidden $8.90 13.69 gems $1.11 1.7 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Water Gun graffiti · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-water-gun) [👌](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%F0%9F%91%8C) $8.90 13.69 gems $1.11 1.7 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $8.90 13.69 gems $16.85 25.92 gems 1.89x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $8.90 13.69 gems $7.70 11.85 gems 0.87x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Sticker | Hydro Wave sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hydro-wave) Hidden $8.90 13.69 gems $0.14 0.21 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [Sticker | Hydro Wave sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hydro-wave) Hidden $8.90 13.69 gems $0.14 0.21 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $8.90 | 89.96% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.5% restricted 2.0% other 5.0% classified 10.0% consumer 20.0% Mythical 25.0% blue 33.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt