--- title: "Stabby Stab Stabbity case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stabby Stab Stabbity ($33.77) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 12 items with odds, observed 101.40% over 1,712 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stabby-stab-stabbity rendered: 2026-11-11T19:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Stabby Stab Stabbity](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stabby-stab-stabbity) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Stabby Stab Stabbity A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stabby-stab-stabbity?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stabby-stab-stabbity?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stabby-stab-stabbity) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stabby-stab-stabbity?window=all) Price · $33.77 · 51.96 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $30.39 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.40% · 1,712 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 120.99% ±31.35 260 openings 7 days · 105.17% ±13.33 1,438 openings 30 days · 101.40% ±12.22 1,712 openings since tracking started · 101.40% ±12.22 1,712 openings 88.5% 120.8% 153.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stabby-stab-stabbity?window=24h) | 260 | 120.99% ±31.3 | +1.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stabby-stab-stabbity?window=7d) | 1,438 | 105.17% ±13.3 | +2.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stabby-stab-stabbity) | 1,712 | 101.40% ±12.2 | +1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stabby-stab-stabbity?window=all) | 1,712 | 101.40% ±12.2 | +1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,724 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,047 1,611 gems | 6.9% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $533 820 gems | 8.8% | 12 | 8.6 | 1.39× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $439 675 gems | 11.5% | 23 | 13.8 | 1.67× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $319 490 gems | 10.5% | 18 | 17.2 | 1.04× | | [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $200 307 gems | 13.2% | 25 | 34.5 | 0.73× | | [★ Bayonet \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $142 218 gems | 14.0% | 58 | 51.7 | 1.12× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $113 173 gems | 13.0% | 71 | 60.3 | 1.18× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $86.87 134 gems | 11.4% | 62 | 69.0 | 0.90× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $62.15 95.62 gems | 10.2% | 98 | 86.2 | 1.14× | | [Sticker \| Ouchie (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ouchie-foil) | 10.0% | $1.50 2.31 gems | 0.5% | 159 | 172.4 | 0.92× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Karambit graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-karambit) | 30.0% | $0.03 0.05 gems | 0.0% | 522 | 517.2 | 1.01× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Backstab graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-backstab) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.0% | 672 | 689.6 | 0.97× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $1,047 1,611 gems 31.01x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $1,047 1,611 gems 31.01x 2026-11-10 21:16 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $1,047 1,611 gems 31.01x 2026-11-10 18:11 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $1,047 1,611 gems 31.01x 2026-11-04 19:52 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $533 820 gems 15.78x 2026-11-11 03:06 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) [kalu](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/kalu) $33.77 51.96 gems $533 820 gems 15.78x 2026-11-10 21:16 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $533 820 gems 15.78x 2026-11-10 17:49 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $533 820 gems 15.78x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $533 820 gems 15.78x 2026-11-10 14:16 UTC [★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $533 820 gems 15.78x 2026-11-07 23:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=stabby-stab-stabbity) [Sealed Graffiti | Karambit graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-karambit) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Karambit graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-karambit) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Karambit graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-karambit) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Karambit graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-karambit) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Backstab graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-backstab) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Backstab graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-backstab) [https://kick.com/waxumfriendly](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/https%3A%2F%2Fkick.com%2Fwaxumfriendly) $33.77 51.96 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Backstab graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-backstab) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [Sticker | Ouchie (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ouchie-foil) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $1.50 2.31 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Backstab graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-backstab) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $33.77 51.96 gems $62.15 95.62 gems 1.84x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $33.77 | 89.98% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.5% #ffd700 3.5% covert knife 4.0% gold 5.0% Exotic 10.0% other 70.0% best hit $1,047 (31.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt