--- title: "Stained Marble case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stained Marble ($2.28) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.82% from 5 items with odds, observed 83.25% over 10.3K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stained-marble rendered: 2026-11-11T19:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Stained Marble](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stained-marble) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Stained Marble A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stained-marble?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stained-marble?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stained-marble) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stained-marble?window=all) Price · $2.28 · 3.5 gems Advertised RTP · 89.82% · EV $2.04 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.25% · 10.3K openings, odds method Variance · 13.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.21% ±21.45 1,097 openings 7 days · 82.09% ±7.58 8,780 openings 30 days · 83.25% ±6.99 10.3K openings since tracking started · 83.25% ±6.99 10.3K openings 72.0% 94.3% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stained-marble?window=24h) | 1,097 | 94.21% ±21.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stained-marble?window=7d) | 8,780 | 82.09% ±7.58 | −2.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stained-marble) | 10.3K | 83.25% ±6.99 | −1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stained-marble?window=all) | 10.3K | 83.25% ±6.99 | −1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $230 354 gems | 11.3% | 6 | 10.5 | 0.57× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $13.73 21.13 gems | 66.5% | 993 | 1036.7 | 0.96× | | [USP-S \| Torque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $1.10 1.69 gems | 8.1% | 1,525 | 1570.8 | 0.97× | | [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.90 1.39 gems | 13.3% | 3,210 | 3141.6 | 1.02× | | [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-well-worn) | 45.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.9% | 4,738 | 4712.5 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $230 354 gems 101.2x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $230 354 gems 101.2x 2026-11-10 19:59 UTC [★ Karambit | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $230 354 gems 101.2x 2026-11-07 07:36 UTC [★ Karambit | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $230 354 gems 101.2x 2026-11-06 23:03 UTC [★ Karambit | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-battle-scarred) [Csirke](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Csirke) $2.28 3.5 gems $230 354 gems 101.2x 2026-11-03 19:56 UTC [★ Karambit | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $230 354 gems 101.2x 2026-11-03 16:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=stained-marble) [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $13.73 21.13 gems 6.04x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $1.10 1.69 gems 0.48x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $0.90 1.39 gems 0.40x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-battle-scarred) [Gralex27](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Gralex27) $2.28 3.5 gems $1.10 1.69 gems 0.48x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $1.10 1.69 gems 0.48x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-battle-scarred) [T](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/T) $2.28 3.5 gems $0.90 1.39 gems 0.40x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-well-worn) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $0.90 1.39 gems 0.40x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [USP-S | Torque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $1.10 1.69 gems 0.48x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-well-worn) Hidden $2.28 3.5 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.28 | 89.82% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% classified 9.9% #4b69ff 15.0% industrial 75.0% best hit $230 (101.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.82 on average: an expected loss of $10.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt