--- title: "Stay Frosty case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stay Frosty ($181.81) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 100.54% over 714 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stay-frosty rendered: 2026-11-12T11:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Stay Frosty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stay-frosty) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Stay Frosty A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stay-frosty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stay-frosty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stay-frosty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stay-frosty?window=all) Price · $181.81 · 280 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $163.63 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.54% · 714 openings, odds method Variance · 16.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 46 openings · below min 7 days · 99.80% ±35.44 492 openings 30 days · 100.54% ±29.42 714 openings since tracking started · 100.54% ±29.42 714 openings -0.5% 92.3% 185.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stay-frosty?window=24h) | 46 | 68.32% ±115.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stay-frosty?window=7d) | 492 | 99.80% ±35.4 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stay-frosty) | 714 | 100.54% ±29.4 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stay-frosty?window=all) | 714 | 100.54% ±29.4 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 754 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $4,280 6,584 gems | 78.5% | 26 | 22.6 | 1.15× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $373 573 gems | 9.1% | 31 | 30.2 | 1.03× | | [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $252 388 gems | 7.7% | 33 | 37.7 | 0.88× | | [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $48.09 73.99 gems | 1.8% | 39 | 45.2 | 0.86× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $32.25 49.61 gems | 1.4% | 45 | 52.8 | 0.85× | | [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) | 15.0% | $10.82 16.64 gems | 1.0% | 93 | 113.1 | 0.82× | | [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 25.0% | $2.99 4.6 gems | 0.5% | 200 | 188.5 | 1.06× | | [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 35.0% | $0.58 0.89 gems | 0.1% | 287 | 263.9 | 1.09× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $182 280 gems $4,280 6,584 gems 23.54x 2026-11-12 05:37 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $182 280 gems $4,280 6,584 gems 23.54x 2026-11-10 20:22 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) [King-Hassany](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/King-Hassany) $182 280 gems $4,280 6,584 gems 23.54x 2026-11-10 16:43 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) [xCK97x On Kick | CODE : CK97](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/xCK97x%20On%20Kick%20%7C%20CODE%20%3A%20%20CK97) $182 280 gems $4,280 6,584 gems 23.54x 2026-11-09 18:55 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $182 280 gems $4,280 6,584 gems 23.54x 2026-11-09 18:55 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) [Code Brando](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Code%20Brando) $182 280 gems $4,280 6,584 gems 23.54x 2026-11-09 04:03 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $182 280 gems $4,280 6,584 gems 23.54x 2026-11-08 16:24 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $182 280 gems $4,280 6,584 gems 23.54x 2026-11-07 22:28 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $182 280 gems $4,280 6,584 gems 23.54x 2026-11-07 21:43 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $182 280 gems $4,280 6,584 gems 23.54x 2026-11-07 21:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=stay-frosty) [AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $182 280 gems $4,280 6,584 gems 23.54x 2026-11-12 05:37 UTC [AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $182 280 gems $2.99 4.6 gems 0.02x 2026-11-12 05:37 UTC [P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $182 280 gems $10.82 16.64 gems 0.06x 2026-11-12 05:37 UTC [AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $182 280 gems $2.99 4.6 gems 0.02x 2026-11-12 05:37 UTC [AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $182 280 gems $2.99 4.6 gems 0.02x 2026-11-12 05:37 UTC [P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $182 280 gems $10.82 16.64 gems 0.06x 2026-11-12 05:37 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) Hidden $182 280 gems $373 573 gems 2.05x 2026-11-11 21:01 UTC [G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) Hidden $182 280 gems $48.09 73.99 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 21:01 UTC [P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $182 280 gems $10.82 16.64 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 21:01 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $182 280 gems $0.58 0.89 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $182 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.0% sunny 4.0% industrial 6.0% classified 7.0% mil spec 15.0% restricted 60.0% best hit $4,280 (23.54x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt