--- title: "Steel or No Steel case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Steel or No Steel ($112.80) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 99.53% over 251 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/steel-or-no-steel rendered: 2026-11-13T03:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Steel or No Steel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/steel-or-no-steel) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Steel or No Steel A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/steel-or-no-steel?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/steel-or-no-steel?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/steel-or-no-steel) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/steel-or-no-steel?window=all) Price · $112.80 · 174 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $101.52 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.53% · 251 openings, odds method Variance · 7.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 91.33% ±41.17 160 openings 30 days · 99.53% ±32.87 251 openings since tracking started · 99.53% ±32.87 251 openings 49.5% 91.3% 133.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/steel-or-no-steel?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/steel-or-no-steel?window=7d) | 160 | 91.33% ±41.2 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/steel-or-no-steel) | 251 | 99.53% ±32.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/steel-or-no-steel?window=all) | 251 | 99.53% ±32.9 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 257 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,833 2,820 gems | 36.1% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $957 1,472 gems | 18.9% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $650 1,000 gems | 12.8% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.36× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $448 690 gems | 8.8% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.97× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $257 395 gems | 5.1% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.97× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 12.0% | $62.89 96.75 gems | 7.4% | 34 | 30.8 | 1.10× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-well-worn) | 12.0% | $48.75 75 gems | 5.8% | 20 | 30.8 | 0.65× | | [PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-factory-new) | 20.0% | $15.35 23.62 gems | 3.0% | 57 | 51.4 | 1.11× | | [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $8.35 12.85 gems | 1.8% | 55 | 56.5 | 0.97× | | [Nova \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) | 24.0% | $1.32 2.03 gems | 0.3% | 62 | 61.7 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 13 Nov, 02:19 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,833 2,820 gems 16.25x 2026-11-11 20:57 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,833 2,820 gems 16.25x 2026-11-08 10:34 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,833 2,820 gems 16.25x 2026-11-07 11:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,833 2,820 gems 16.25x 2026-11-06 09:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,833 2,820 gems 16.25x 2026-11-05 21:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1,833 2,820 gems 16.25x 2026-11-05 21:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $957 1,472 gems 8.48x 2026-11-09 21:35 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $957 1,472 gems 8.48x 2026-11-06 19:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $957 1,472 gems 8.48x 2026-11-05 16:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $957 1,472 gems 8.48x 2026-11-05 00:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=steel-or-no-steel) [★ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $113 174 gems $62.89 96.75 gems 0.56x 2026-11-12 00:55 UTC [PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $15.35 23.62 gems 0.14x 2026-11-12 00:55 UTC [Nova | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1.32 2.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:55 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-well-worn) [Ramen Noodles](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Ramen%20Noodles) $113 174 gems $48.75 75 gems 0.43x 2026-11-12 00:55 UTC [Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-minimal-wear) Hidden $113 174 gems $8.35 12.85 gems 0.07x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $113 174 gems $48.75 75 gems 0.43x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC [Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-minimal-wear) Hidden $113 174 gems $8.35 12.85 gems 0.07x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC [PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-factory-new) [Ramen Noodles](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Ramen%20Noodles) $113 174 gems $15.35 23.62 gems 0.14x 2026-11-12 00:53 UTC [Nova | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $1.32 2.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:19 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $113 174 gems $62.89 96.75 gems 0.56x 2026-11-12 00:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $113 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Knives 2.0% covert 18.0% Immortal 2.0% covert knife 12.0% mil spec 20.0% #87c7ff 22.0% Industrial Grade 24.0% best hit $1,833 (16.25x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt