--- title: "Streamer Luck case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Streamer Luck ($63.18) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 79.76% over 3,348 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/streamer-luck rendered: 2026-11-11T14:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Streamer Luck](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/streamer-luck) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Streamer Luck A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/streamer-luck?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/streamer-luck?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/streamer-luck) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/streamer-luck?window=all) Price · $63.18 · 97.2 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $56.86 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.76% · 3,348 openings, odds method Variance · 212.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 333 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 240 openings · below min 7 days · 84.43% ±51.12 3,122 openings 30 days · 79.76% ±49.37 3,348 openings since tracking started · 79.76% ±49.37 3,348 openings -0.5% 99.5% 199.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/streamer-luck?window=24h) | 240 | 14.60% ±184.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/streamer-luck?window=7d) | 3,122 | 84.43% ±51.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/streamer-luck) | 3,348 | 79.76% ±49.4 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/streamer-luck?window=all) | 3,348 | 79.76% ±49.4 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,447 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $26.6K 41,000 gems | 46.9% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $7,461 11,479 gems | 26.2% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.02× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $3,333 5,127 gems | 11.7% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,545 2,377 gems | 5.4% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $924 1,421 gems | 4.9% | 6 | 10.3 | 0.58× | | [Sticker \| Avangar (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-avangar-foil-katowice-2019) | 24.5% | $4.41 6.79 gems | 1.9% | 844 | 844.5 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Infinite Diamond (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-infinite-diamond-holo) | 24.5% | $3.57 5.49 gems | 1.5% | 843 | 844.5 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Team Immunity \| Cologne 2015 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-immunity-cologne-2015) | 25.0% | $2.29 3.52 gems | 1.0% | 832 | 861.8 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| paiN Gaming (Holo) \| Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pain-gaming-holo-paris-2023) | 25.0% | $0.92 1.42 gems | 0.4% | 900 | 861.8 | 1.04× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [Justski](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Justski) $63.18 97.2 gems $26.6K 41,000 gems 421.8x 2026-11-07 23:33 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $26.6K 41,000 gems 421.8x 2026-11-06 20:37 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $26.6K 41,000 gems 421.8x 2026-11-05 19:10 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $7,461 11,479 gems 118.1x 2026-11-08 11:44 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $7,461 11,479 gems 118.1x 2026-11-08 11:43 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $7,461 11,479 gems 118.1x 2026-11-07 19:37 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $7,461 11,479 gems 118.1x 2026-11-06 15:20 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $7,461 11,479 gems 118.1x 2026-11-05 19:32 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $7,461 11,479 gems 118.1x 2026-11-05 19:12 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [brock csgobig.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/brock%20csgobig.com) $63.18 97.2 gems $7,461 11,479 gems 118.1x 2026-11-02 23:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=streamer-luck) [Sticker | Avangar (Foil) | Katowice 2019 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-avangar-foil-katowice-2019) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $4.41 6.79 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [Sticker | Team Immunity | Cologne 2015 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-immunity-cologne-2015) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $2.29 3.52 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [Sticker | paiN Gaming (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pain-gaming-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $0.92 1.42 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [Sticker | paiN Gaming (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pain-gaming-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $0.92 1.42 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [Sticker | Team Immunity | Cologne 2015 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-immunity-cologne-2015) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $2.29 3.52 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [Sticker | Avangar (Foil) | Katowice 2019 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-avangar-foil-katowice-2019) [Thomas the termonuclear bomb](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Thomas%20the%20termonuclear%20bomb) $63.18 97.2 gems $4.41 6.79 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [Sticker | Team Immunity | Cologne 2015 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-immunity-cologne-2015) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $2.29 3.52 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC [Sticker | Avangar (Foil) | Katowice 2019 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-avangar-foil-katowice-2019) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $4.41 6.79 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC [Sticker | Avangar (Foil) | Katowice 2019 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-avangar-foil-katowice-2019) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $4.41 6.79 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC [Sticker | Avangar (Foil) | Katowice 2019 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-avangar-foil-katowice-2019) Hidden $63.18 97.2 gems $4.41 6.79 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $63.18 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% Legendary 24.5% Remarkable 24.5% Rare 25.0% exotic 25.0% best hit $26.6K (421.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt