--- title: "Summer Spirit case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Summer Spirit ($53.90) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 90.14% over 273 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/summer-spirit rendered: 2026-11-11T22:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Summer Spirit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/summer-spirit) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Summer Spirit A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/summer-spirit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/summer-spirit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/summer-spirit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/summer-spirit?window=all) Price · $53.90 · 82.93 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $48.51 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.14% · 273 openings, odds method Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82 openings · below min 7 days · 97.62% ±24.66 209 openings 30 days · 90.14% ±21.58 273 openings since tracking started · 90.14% ±21.58 273 openings 54.5% 94.5% 134.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/summer-spirit?window=24h) | 82 | 94.30% ±39.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/summer-spirit?window=7d) | 209 | 97.62% ±24.7 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/summer-spirit) | 273 | 90.14% ±21.6 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/summer-spirit?window=all) | 273 | 90.14% ±21.6 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 273 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $465 715 gems | 19.2% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $286 440 gems | 47.1% | 25 | 21.8 | 1.14× | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 10.0% | $91.72 141 gems | 18.9% | 29 | 27.3 | 1.06× | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 10.0% | $50.09 77.06 gems | 10.3% | 24 | 27.3 | 0.88× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $16.12 24.8 gems | 3.3% | 15 | 27.3 | 0.55× | | [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.40 3.69 gems | 1.0% | 55 | 54.6 | 1.01× | | [MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.33 0.51 gems | 0.1% | 67 | 54.6 | 1.23× | | [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.0% | 54 | 54.6 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=summer-spirit) [MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $53.90 82.93 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) Hidden $53.90 82.93 gems $50.09 77.06 gems 0.93x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [MP7 | Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) Hidden $53.90 82.93 gems $0.33 0.51 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) Hidden $53.90 82.93 gems $50.09 77.06 gems 0.93x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [MP7 | Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) Hidden $53.90 82.93 gems $0.33 0.51 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) [ncfoodie code DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ncfoodie%20code%20DGN) $53.90 82.93 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) Hidden $53.90 82.93 gems $50.09 77.06 gems 0.93x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC [MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) Hidden $53.90 82.93 gems $2.40 3.69 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $53.90 82.93 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC [FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) Hidden $53.90 82.93 gems $50.09 77.06 gems 0.93x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $53.90 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.0% extraordinary 8.0% classified 10.0% pink 10.0% restricted 10.0% mil spec 40.0% #4b69ff 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt