--- title: "Sun Burn case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sun Burn ($0.33) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.40% from 6 items with odds, observed 88.50% over 26K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sun-burn rendered: 2026-11-11T20:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Sun Burn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sun-burn) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Sun Burn A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sun-burn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sun-burn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sun-burn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sun-burn?window=all) Price · $0.33 · 0.5 gems Advertised RTP · 88.40% · EV $0.29 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.50% · 26K openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.08% ±3.88 5,786 openings 7 days · 88.48% ±2.02 21.4K openings 30 days · 88.50% ±1.83 26K openings since tracking started · 88.50% ±1.83 26K openings 82.5% 87.0% 91.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sun-burn?window=24h) | 5,786 | 87.08% ±3.88 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sun-burn?window=7d) | 21.4K | 88.48% ±2.02 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sun-burn) | 26K | 88.50% ±1.83 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/sun-burn?window=all) | 26K | 88.50% ±1.83 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.35 2.07 gems | 46.8% | 2,689 | 2644.8 | 1.02× | | [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.17 1.8 gems | 40.7% | 2,606 | 2644.8 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.17 0.26 gems | 5.9% | 2,618 | 2644.8 | 0.99× | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 5.0% | 5,344 | 5289.5 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.9% | 5,280 | 5289.5 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.7% | 7,911 | 7934.6 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=sun-burn) [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $0.33 0.5 gems $0.17 0.26 gems 0.52x 2026-11-11 20:08 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.33 0.5 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:08 UTC [XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-factory-new) Hidden $0.33 0.5 gems $1.17 1.8 gems 3.60x 2026-11-11 20:08 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.33 0.5 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:08 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.33 0.5 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:08 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) [Jimppa](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Jimppa) $0.33 0.5 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:08 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $0.33 0.5 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $0.33 0.5 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.33 0.5 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.33 0.5 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.33 | 88.40% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mythical 20.0% consumer 80.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.40 on average: an expected loss of $11.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt