---
title: "Suppressed case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Suppressed ($239.99) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 114.32% over 159 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/suppressed
rendered: 2026-11-12T00:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Suppressed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/suppressed)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Suppressed

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/suppressed?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/suppressed?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/suppressed) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/suppressed?window=all)

Price · $239.99 · 369 gems

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $215.98 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 114.32% · 159 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 15 openings · below min

7 days · 120.30% ±45.92 141 openings

30 days · 114.32% ±43.24 159 openings

since tracking started · 114.32% ±43.24 159 openings

-0.5% 92.5% 185.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/suppressed?window=24h) | 15 | 44.17% ±140.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/suppressed?window=7d) | 141 | 120.30% ±45.9 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/suppressed) | 159 | 114.32% ±43.2 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/suppressed?window=all) | 159 | 114.32% ±43.2 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 175 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $5,561 8,556 gems | 25.7% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.29× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,155 3,316 gems | 10.0% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,921 2,955 gems | 26.7% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $533 820 gems | 12.3% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $359 552 gems | 8.3% | 14 | 8.7 | 1.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $288 443 gems | 6.7% | 12 | 8.7 | 1.37× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 10.0% | $87.96 135 gems | 4.1% | 17 | 17.5 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $50.91 78.32 gems | 2.4% | 15 | 17.5 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 10.0% | $34.59 53.22 gems | 1.6% | 17 | 17.5 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 15.0% | $22.77 35.03 gems | 1.6% | 31 | 26.2 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 15.0% | $7.43 11.43 gems | 0.5% | 22 | 26.2 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.70 2.61 gems | 0.2% | 31 | 35.0 | 0.89× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $240 369 gems $5,561 8,556 gems 23.17x 2026-11-09 17:47 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $240 369 gems $5,561 8,556 gems 23.17x 2026-11-08 17:26 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) [King-Hassany](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/King-Hassany) $240 369 gems $5,561 8,556 gems 23.17x 2026-11-08 15:17 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $240 369 gems $5,561 8,556 gems 23.17x 2026-11-07 20:00 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) Hidden $240 369 gems $2,155 3,316 gems 8.98x 2026-11-08 18:33 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) [•Cřytox•](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%80%A2C%C5%99ytox%E2%80%A2) $240 369 gems $2,155 3,316 gems 8.98x 2026-11-02 22:11 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Kick/PapaGambles $20k+ Rewards](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick%2FPapaGambles%20%2420k%2B%20Rewards) $240 369 gems $1,921 2,955 gems 8.00x 2026-11-08 18:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Headed](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Headed) $240 369 gems $1,921 2,955 gems 8.00x 2026-11-08 15:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [•Cřytox•](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%80%A2C%C5%99ytox%E2%80%A2) $240 369 gems $1,921 2,955 gems 8.00x 2026-11-02 22:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $240 369 gems $533 820 gems 2.22x 2026-11-12 00:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=suppressed)

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $240 369 gems $50.91 78.32 gems 0.21x 2026-11-12 00:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $240 369 gems $34.59 53.22 gems 0.14x 2026-11-12 00:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) Hidden $240 369 gems $1.70 2.61 gems 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $240 369 gems $50.91 78.32 gems 0.21x 2026-11-12 00:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $240 369 gems $533 820 gems 2.22x 2026-11-12 00:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) [Surgest](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Surgest) $240 369 gems $22.77 35.03 gems 0.09x 2026-11-12 00:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $240 369 gems $50.91 78.32 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 16:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $240 369 gems $359 552 gems 1.49x 2026-11-11 16:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $240 369 gems $22.77 35.03 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 16:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) Hidden $240 369 gems $7.43 11.43 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $240 | 90.00% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 12.0% classified 13.0% restricted 50.0% industrial 10.0% pink 15.0% best hit $5,561 (23.17x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt