--- title: "Surgical case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Surgical ($75.85) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 101.56% over 269 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/surgical rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Surgical](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/surgical) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Surgical A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/surgical?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/surgical?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/surgical) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/surgical?window=all) Price · $75.85 · 117 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $68.26 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.56% · 269 openings, odds method Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74 openings · below min 7 days · 102.47% ±31.28 245 openings 30 days · 101.56% ±29.85 269 openings since tracking started · 101.56% ±29.85 269 openings 70.5% 130.3% 190.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/surgical?window=24h) | 74 | 132.59% ±56.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/surgical?window=7d) | 245 | 102.47% ±31.3 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/surgical) | 269 | 101.56% ±29.8 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/surgical?window=all) | 269 | 101.56% ±29.8 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 269 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,105 1,700 gems | 32.4% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.30× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $541 832 gems | 31.7% | 12 | 10.8 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $309 475 gems | 18.1% | 12 | 10.8 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $87.20 134 gems | 6.4% | 9 | 13.4 | 0.67× | | [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $54.20 83.39 gems | 4.0% | 11 | 13.4 | 0.82× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $29.28 45.04 gems | 2.1% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× | | [P2000 \| Dispatch (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-factory-new) | 15.0% | $15.28 23.51 gems | 3.4% | 45 | 40.3 | 1.12× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 30.0% | $3.51 5.4 gems | 1.5% | 73 | 80.7 | 0.90× | | [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.97 1.49 gems | 0.4% | 87 | 80.7 | 1.08× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) [Energetic Lion](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Energetic%20Lion) $75.85 117 gems $1,105 1,700 gems 14.57x 2026-11-11 04:18 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) [Dingus](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Dingus) $75.85 117 gems $1,105 1,700 gems 14.57x 2026-11-11 03:38 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) [Dingus](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Dingus) $75.85 117 gems $1,105 1,700 gems 14.57x 2026-11-11 03:36 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $1,105 1,700 gems 14.57x 2026-11-11 03:36 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $1,105 1,700 gems 14.57x 2026-11-09 02:25 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $1,105 1,700 gems 14.57x 2026-11-06 18:55 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $1,105 1,700 gems 14.57x 2026-11-05 01:40 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $541 832 gems 7.13x 2026-11-11 03:41 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $541 832 gems 7.13x 2026-11-11 03:34 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $541 832 gems 7.13x 2026-11-10 14:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=surgical) [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $3.51 5.4 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [AWP | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $29.28 45.04 gems 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [AWP | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $87.20 134 gems 1.15x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [P2000 | Dispatch (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $75.85 117 gems $15.28 23.51 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $3.51 5.4 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:13 UTC [P2000 | Dispatch (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $15.28 23.51 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 10:13 UTC [AWP | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $0.97 1.49 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:13 UTC [P2000 | Dispatch (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-factory-new) Hidden $75.85 117 gems $15.28 23.51 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 10:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $75.85 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.0% knifes 4.0% #eb4b4b 4.0% Covert 5.0% violet 5.0% classified 5.0% Rare 15.0% restricted 30.0% #4b69ff 30.0% best hit $1,105 (14.57x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt