--- title: "Survival Guide case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Survival Guide ($4.46) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 10 items with odds, observed 94.91% over 6,600 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/survival-guide rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Survival Guide](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/survival-guide) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Survival Guide A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/survival-guide?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/survival-guide?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/survival-guide) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/survival-guide?window=all) Price · $4.46 · 6.86 gems Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $4.01 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.91% · 6,600 openings, odds method Variance · 9.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 127.79% ±22.73 707 openings 7 days · 93.02% ±7.99 5,717 openings 30 days · 94.91% ±7.44 6,600 openings since tracking started · 94.91% ±7.44 6,600 openings 84.5% 117.8% 151.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/survival-guide?window=24h) | 707 | 127.79% ±22.7 | +3.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/survival-guide?window=7d) | 5,717 | 93.02% ±7.99 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/survival-guide) | 6,600 | 94.91% ±7.44 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/survival-guide?window=all) | 6,600 | 94.91% ±7.44 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,008 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Survival Knife knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife) | 1 in 100 | $122 188 gems | 30.5% | 81 | 70.1 | 1.16× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $55.46 85.32 gems | 13.8% | 73 | 70.1 | 1.04× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $30.33 46.66 gems | 7.6% | 72 | 70.1 | 1.03× | | [XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $12.84 19.76 gems | 22.4% | 494 | 490.6 | 1.01× | | [P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-factory-new) | 10.0% | $6.00 9.23 gems | 15.0% | 691 | 700.8 | 0.99× | | [Sawed-Off \| Jungle Thicket (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2.45 3.77 gems | 6.1% | 682 | 700.8 | 0.97× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.68 1.05 gems | 1.7% | 705 | 700.8 | 1.01× | | [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.41 0.63 gems | 2.0% | 1,403 | 1401.6 | 1.00× | | [Sawed-Off \| Morris (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.16 0.25 gems | 0.8% | 1,404 | 1401.6 | 1.00× | | [MP7 \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.1% | 1,403 | 1401.7 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=survival-guide) [Sawed-Off | Morris (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-factory-new) Hidden $4.46 6.86 gems $0.16 0.25 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) Hidden $4.46 6.86 gems $0.68 1.05 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP7 | Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.46 6.86 gems $0.41 0.63 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP7 | Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.46 6.86 gems $0.41 0.63 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP7 | Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.46 6.86 gems $0.41 0.63 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Sawed-Off | Morris (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-factory-new) [Alboholics](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Alboholics) $4.46 6.86 gems $0.16 0.25 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP7 | Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.46 6.86 gems $0.41 0.63 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [MP7 | Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.46 6.86 gems $0.41 0.63 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $4.46 6.86 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [P2000 | Woodsman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-factory-new) Hidden $4.46 6.86 gems $6.00 9.23 gems 1.35x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.46 | 89.94% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Immortal 1.0% gold 1.0% classified 1.0% Industrial Grade 7.0% restricted 10.0% consumer 10.0% gray 10.0% blue 20.0% milspec 20.0% Consumer Grade 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt