--- title: "SWAT case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "SWAT ($5.60) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 92.99% over 4,461 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/swat rendered: 2026-11-12T00:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [SWAT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/swat) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · SWAT A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/swat?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/swat?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/swat) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/swat?window=all) Price · $5.60 · 8.62 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $5.04 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.99% · 4,461 openings, odds method Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.96% ±16.81 647 openings 7 days · 92.48% ±7.04 3,688 openings 30 days · 92.99% ±6.40 4,461 openings since tracking started · 92.99% ±6.40 4,461 openings 79.5% 97.0% 114.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/swat?window=24h) | 647 | 96.96% ±16.8 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/swat?window=7d) | 3,688 | 92.48% ±7.04 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/swat) | 4,461 | 92.99% ±6.40 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/swat?window=all) | 4,461 | 92.99% ±6.40 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,509 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $41.69 64.14 gems | 82.7% | 473 | 450.9 | 1.05× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $1.38 2.12 gems | 8.2% | 1,316 | 1352.7 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 30.0% | $1.06 1.63 gems | 6.3% | 1,360 | 1352.7 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.47 0.73 gems | 2.8% | 1,360 | 1352.7 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=swat) [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $5.60 8.62 gems $1.06 1.63 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 23:56 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.60 8.62 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 23:56 UTC [AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.60 8.62 gems $41.69 64.14 gems 7.44x 2026-11-11 23:56 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) [guiness6248](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/guiness6248) $5.60 8.62 gems $1.38 2.12 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 23:56 UTC [AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.60 8.62 gems $41.69 64.14 gems 7.44x 2026-11-11 23:51 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.60 8.62 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 23:51 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.60 8.62 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 23:51 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) [guiness6248](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/guiness6248) $5.60 8.62 gems $0.47 0.73 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 23:51 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.60 8.62 gems $1.38 2.12 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 23:42 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $5.60 8.62 gems $1.06 1.63 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 23:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $5.60 | 90.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 10.0% restricted 30.0% #8847ff 30.0% mil spec 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt