--- title: "Team ML case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Team ML ($24.12) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 85.42% over 2,225 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/team-ml rendered: 2026-11-11T21:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Team ML](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/team-ml) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Team ML A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/team-ml?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/team-ml?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/team-ml) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/team-ml?window=all) Price · $24.12 · 37.1 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $21.70 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.42% · 2,225 openings, odds method Variance · 15.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 68.24% ±45.98 282 openings 7 days · 85.74% ±18.08 1,823 openings 30 days · 85.42% ±16.37 2,225 openings since tracking started · 85.42% ±16.37 2,225 openings 21.5% 68.3% 115.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/team-ml?window=24h) | 282 | 68.24% ±46.0 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/team-ml?window=7d) | 1,823 | 85.74% ±18.1 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/team-ml) | 2,225 | 85.42% ±16.4 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/team-ml?window=all) | 2,225 | 85.42% ±16.4 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,346 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $1,569 2,414 gems | 14.5% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.07× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 333 | $777 1,196 gems | 10.7% | 4 | 7.0 | 0.57× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $546 841 gems | 12.6% | 15 | 11.7 | 1.28× | | [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $160 246 gems | 7.4% | 19 | 23.5 | 0.81× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $142 218 gems | 13.1% | 59 | 46.9 | 1.26× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $108 167 gems | 15.0% | 69 | 70.4 | 0.98× | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $70.32 108 gems | 9.7% | 58 | 70.4 | 0.82× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $37.38 57.51 gems | 8.6% | 106 | 117.3 | 0.90× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $27.75 42.69 gems | 6.4% | 120 | 117.3 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Noble (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-noble-holo) | 80.0% | $0.57 0.87 gems | 2.1% | 1,891 | 1876.8 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) [RMV1207](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/RMV1207) $24.12 37.1 gems $1,569 2,414 gems 65.07x 2026-11-07 04:38 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) [ya wyrsych poldi](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ya%20wyrsych%20poldi) $24.12 37.1 gems $1,569 2,414 gems 65.07x 2026-11-05 22:21 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) [Anonymous260438](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Anonymous260438) $24.12 37.1 gems $1,569 2,414 gems 65.07x 2026-11-05 11:19 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $1,569 2,414 gems 65.07x 2026-11-03 04:04 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $1,569 2,414 gems 65.07x 2026-11-02 23:52 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $777 1,196 gems 32.23x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $777 1,196 gems 32.23x 2026-11-07 12:56 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $777 1,196 gems 32.23x 2026-11-06 07:11 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $777 1,196 gems 32.23x 2026-11-03 19:45 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $546 841 gems 22.66x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=team-ml) [Sticker | Noble (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-noble-holo) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $27.75 42.69 gems 1.15x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC [Sticker | Noble (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-noble-holo) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC [Sticker | Noble (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-noble-holo) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC [Sticker | Noble (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-noble-holo) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC [Sticker | Noble (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-noble-holo) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $142 218 gems 5.87x 2026-11-11 21:21 UTC [Sticker | Noble (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-noble-holo) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:21 UTC [Sticker | Noble (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-noble-holo) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:21 UTC [Sticker | Noble (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-noble-holo) Hidden $24.12 37.1 gems $0.57 0.87 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $24.12 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.2% covert 0.8% restricted 8.0% Restricted 3.0% mil spec 3.0% extraordinary 5.0% Mythical 80.0% best hit $1,569 (65.07x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt