--- title: "Teddy Bear case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Teddy Bear ($20.60) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 94.80% over 2,295 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/teddy-bear rendered: 2026-11-11T19:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Teddy Bear](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/teddy-bear) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Teddy Bear A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/teddy-bear?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/teddy-bear?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/teddy-bear) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/teddy-bear?window=all) Price · $20.60 · 31.69 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $18.54 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.80% · 2,295 openings, odds method Variance · 13.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 132 openings · below min 7 days · 86.76% ±16.71 1,879 openings 30 days · 94.80% ±15.12 2,295 openings since tracking started · 94.80% ±15.12 2,295 openings 40.0% 103.8% 167.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/teddy-bear?window=24h) | 132 | 103.88% ±63.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/teddy-bear?window=7d) | 1,879 | 86.76% ±16.7 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/teddy-bear) | 2,295 | 94.80% ±15.1 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/teddy-bear?window=all) | 2,295 | 94.80% ±15.1 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,320 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $943 1,450 gems | 25.4% | 15 | 11.6 | 1.29× | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $364 560 gems | 9.8% | 7 | 11.6 | 0.60× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $224 344 gems | 12.1% | 28 | 23.2 | 1.21× | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $161 247 gems | 8.7% | 23 | 23.2 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $95.71 147 gems | 5.2% | 20 | 23.2 | 0.86× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $58.49 89.99 gems | 3.2% | 18 | 23.2 | 0.78× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $41.61 64.01 gems | 4.5% | 53 | 46.4 | 1.14× | | [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $29.65 45.61 gems | 4.8% | 66 | 69.6 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $23.44 36.06 gems | 19.0% | 354 | 348.0 | 1.02× | | [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 75.0% | $1.84 2.83 gems | 7.4% | 1,736 | 1740.0 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $943 1,450 gems 45.77x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $943 1,450 gems 45.77x 2026-11-10 19:57 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $943 1,450 gems 45.77x 2026-11-10 08:12 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $943 1,450 gems 45.77x 2026-11-09 22:40 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) [HRMN](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/HRMN) $20.60 31.69 gems $943 1,450 gems 45.77x 2026-11-09 15:29 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $943 1,450 gems 45.77x 2026-11-08 18:57 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $943 1,450 gems 45.77x 2026-11-08 01:08 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $943 1,450 gems 45.77x 2026-11-06 09:17 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $943 1,450 gems 45.77x 2026-11-05 22:35 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $943 1,450 gems 45.77x 2026-11-04 11:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=teddy-bear) [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $1.84 2.83 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $1.84 2.83 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $1.84 2.83 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $1.84 2.83 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $1.84 2.83 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) [leaxx93](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/leaxx93) $20.60 31.69 gems $1.84 2.83 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $943 1,450 gems 45.77x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $1.84 2.83 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $23.44 36.06 gems 1.14x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 31.69 gems $1.84 2.83 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $20.60 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.5% covert 2.5% Ancient 16.0% red 1.0% restricted 2.0% pink 3.0% violet 75.0% best hit $943 (45.77x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt