--- title: "Terminator case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Terminator ($40.20) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 7 items with odds, observed 96.16% over 438 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/terminator rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Terminator](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/terminator) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Terminator A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/terminator?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/terminator?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/terminator) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/terminator?window=all) Price · $40.20 · 61.84 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $36.17 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.16% · 438 openings, odds method Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 76.43% ±35.23 104 openings 7 days · 94.54% ±18.19 390 openings 30 days · 96.16% ±17.17 438 openings since tracking started · 96.16% ±17.17 438 openings 40.5% 77.3% 114.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/terminator?window=24h) | 104 | 76.43% ±35.2 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/terminator?window=7d) | 390 | 94.54% ±18.2 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/terminator) | 438 | 96.16% ±17.2 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/terminator?window=all) | 438 | 96.16% ±17.2 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 459 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $375 577 gems | 31.1% | 14 | 13.8 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 17.0% | $120 185 gems | 56.6% | 85 | 78.0 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 10.0% | $17.45 26.85 gems | 4.8% | 50 | 45.9 | 1.09× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-bone-machine-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.80 18.16 gems | 3.3% | 37 | 45.9 | 0.81× | | [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.95 12.23 gems | 2.2% | 50 | 45.9 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 25.0% | $2.59 3.99 gems | 1.8% | 104 | 114.7 | 0.91× | | [P250 \| Bone Mask (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-well-worn) | 25.0% | $0.34 0.52 gems | 0.2% | 119 | 114.8 | 1.04× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=terminator) [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) Hidden $40.20 61.84 gems $7.95 12.23 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) Hidden $40.20 61.84 gems $7.95 12.23 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-factory-new) Hidden $40.20 61.84 gems $17.45 26.85 gems 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $40.20 61.84 gems $2.59 3.99 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $40.20 61.84 gems $2.59 3.99 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) [TwitchBaleszko](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TwitchBaleszko) $40.20 61.84 gems $120 185 gems 3.00x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $40.20 61.84 gems $2.59 3.99 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) Hidden $40.20 61.84 gems $7.95 12.23 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-well-worn) Hidden $40.20 61.84 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-factory-new) Hidden $40.20 61.84 gems $17.45 26.85 gems 0.43x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $40.20 | 89.99% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 3.0% covert 17.0% restricted 10.0% Mil Spec 10.0% mil spec 10.0% Mil Spec Grade 25.0% consumer 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt