--- title: "The 10% Club case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The 10% Club ($15.21) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 92.12% over 2,954 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-10percent-club rendered: 2026-11-12T12:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [The 10% Club](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-10percent-club) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · The 10% Club A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-10percent-club?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-10percent-club?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-10percent-club) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-10percent-club?window=all) Price · $15.21 · 23.4 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $13.69 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.12% · 2,954 openings, odds method Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.50% ±19.48 455 openings 7 days · 88.27% ±8.80 2,228 openings 30 days · 92.12% ±7.64 2,954 openings since tracking started · 92.12% ±7.64 2,954 openings 65.5% 85.5% 105.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-10percent-club?window=24h) | 455 | 85.50% ±19.5 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-10percent-club?window=7d) | 2,228 | 88.27% ±8.80 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-10percent-club) | 2,954 | 92.12% ±7.64 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-10percent-club?window=all) | 2,954 | 92.12% ±7.64 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,990 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $199 306 gems | 29.1% | 56 | 59.8 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $101 155 gems | 22.1% | 106 | 89.7 | 1.18× | | [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $37.41 57.56 gems | 13.7% | 144 | 149.5 | 0.96× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $20.15 31 gems | 14.7% | 314 | 299.0 | 1.05× | | [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 10.0% | $10.48 16.12 gems | 7.7% | 277 | 299.0 | 0.93× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 10.0% | $6.71 10.32 gems | 4.9% | 307 | 299.0 | 1.03× | | [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.76 5.78 gems | 5.5% | 589 | 598.0 | 0.98× | | [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.16 1.79 gems | 1.7% | 597 | 598.0 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.45 0.7 gems | 0.7% | 600 | 598.0 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-10percent-club) [AWP | Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) Hidden $15.21 23.4 gems $37.41 57.56 gems 2.46x 2026-11-12 12:34 UTC [AWP | Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) Hidden $15.21 23.4 gems $37.41 57.56 gems 2.46x 2026-11-12 12:34 UTC [SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.21 23.4 gems $1.16 1.79 gems 0.08x 2026-11-12 12:34 UTC [SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.21 23.4 gems $1.16 1.79 gems 0.08x 2026-11-12 12:34 UTC [SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.21 23.4 gems $1.16 1.79 gems 0.08x 2026-11-12 12:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) [Umbrella](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Umbrella) $15.21 23.4 gems $0.45 0.7 gems 0.03x 2026-11-12 12:34 UTC [SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.21 23.4 gems $1.16 1.79 gems 0.08x 2026-11-12 12:32 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) Hidden $15.21 23.4 gems $6.71 10.32 gems 0.44x 2026-11-12 12:32 UTC [AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.21 23.4 gems $101 155 gems 6.64x 2026-11-12 12:32 UTC [UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) Hidden $15.21 23.4 gems $0.45 0.7 gems 0.03x 2026-11-12 12:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $15.21 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 2.0% Ancient 3.0% pink 5.0% mil spec 10.0% violet 10.0% classified 10.0% restricted 40.0% blue 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt