--- title: "The Big Three case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Big Three ($61.32) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 99.88% over 2,699 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-big-three rendered: 2026-11-11T17:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [The Big Three](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-big-three) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · The Big Three A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-big-three?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-big-three?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-big-three) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-big-three?window=all) Price · $61.32 · 94.34 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $55.19 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.88% · 2,699 openings, odds method Variance · 33.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 301 openings · below min 7 days · 107.13% ±23.76 2,257 openings 30 days · 99.88% ±21.73 2,699 openings since tracking started · 99.88% ±21.73 2,699 openings 47.0% 112.8% 178.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-big-three?window=24h) | 301 | 112.55% ±65.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-big-three?window=7d) | 2,257 | 107.13% ±23.8 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-big-three) | 2,699 | 99.88% ±21.7 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-big-three?window=all) | 2,699 | 99.88% ±21.7 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,726 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $4,672 7,188 gems | 42.3% | 17 | 13.6 | 1.25× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,455 2,239 gems | 13.2% | 13 | 13.6 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $705 1,085 gems | 12.8% | 27 | 27.3 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $452 696 gems | 8.2% | 33 | 27.3 | 1.21× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $248 382 gems | 4.5% | 20 | 27.3 | 0.73× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $145 223 gems | 2.6% | 29 | 27.3 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $45.77 70.42 gems | 1.7% | 55 | 54.5 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $37.21 57.24 gems | 2.0% | 96 | 81.8 | 1.17× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 20.0% | $24.31 37.4 gems | 8.8% | 554 | 545.2 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 20.0% | $9.20 14.15 gems | 3.3% | 544 | 545.2 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.29 1.98 gems | 0.5% | 533 | 545.2 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.17 0.26 gems | 0.1% | 805 | 817.8 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $4,672 7,188 gems 76.19x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $4,672 7,188 gems 76.19x 2026-11-11 05:32 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $4,672 7,188 gems 76.19x 2026-11-10 15:12 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $4,672 7,188 gems 76.19x 2026-11-10 14:06 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $4,672 7,188 gems 76.19x 2026-11-10 00:16 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $4,672 7,188 gems 76.19x 2026-11-09 17:44 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $4,672 7,188 gems 76.19x 2026-11-09 12:18 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $4,672 7,188 gems 76.19x 2026-11-07 18:42 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $4,672 7,188 gems 76.19x 2026-11-06 12:36 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $4,672 7,188 gems 76.19x 2026-11-06 10:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-big-three) [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $24.31 37.4 gems 0.40x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $0.17 0.26 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $452 696 gems 7.38x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC [AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $9.20 14.15 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $0.17 0.26 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) [LiquidWater](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/LiquidWater) $61.32 94.34 gems $0.17 0.26 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:42 UTC [AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $9.20 14.15 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC [AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $9.20 14.15 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $0.17 0.26 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) Hidden $61.32 94.34 gems $0.17 0.26 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $61.32 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.5% legendary 0.5% classified 22.0% industrial 23.0% restricted 20.0% milspec 30.0% best hit $4,672 (76.19x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt