--- title: "The Cerberus case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Cerberus ($905.56) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 92.62% over 80 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cerberus rendered: 2026-11-11T17:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [The Cerberus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cerberus) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · The Cerberus A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cerberus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cerberus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cerberus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cerberus?window=all) Price · $905.56 · 1,393 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $814.99 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.62% · 80 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 48 openings · below min 30 days · 80 openings · below min since tracking started · 80 openings · below min 55.5% 97.2% 139.0% **Small sample.** 80 openings and 14.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cerberus?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cerberus?window=7d) | 48 | 97.40% ±41.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cerberus) | 80 | 92.62% ±31.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/the-cerberus?window=all) | 80 | 92.62% ±31.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $3,870 5,954 gems | 42.7% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2,742 4,219 gems | 30.3% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $2,022 3,111 gems | 22.3% | 12 | 7.2 | 1.67× | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $242 373 gems | 2.7% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× | | [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $86.16 133 gems | 1.0% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.25× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $55.98 86.12 gems | 0.6% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $22.37 34.42 gems | 0.2% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× | | [Tec-9 \| Hades (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $10.22 15.73 gems | 0.1% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.39× | | [AUG \| Daedalus (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.46 3.78 gems | 0.0% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× | | [P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) | 19.0% | $0.62 0.95 gems | 0.0% | 14 | 15.2 | 0.92× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Chuck](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Chuck) $906 1,393 gems $3,870 5,954 gems 4.27x 2026-11-09 14:21 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Chuck](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Chuck) $906 1,393 gems $3,870 5,954 gems 4.27x 2026-11-09 14:19 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $3,870 5,954 gems 4.27x 2026-11-09 14:19 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $3,870 5,954 gems 4.27x 2026-11-09 14:17 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $3,870 5,954 gems 4.27x 2026-11-03 22:28 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [Chuck](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Chuck) $906 1,393 gems $3,870 5,954 gems 4.27x 2026-11-03 17:30 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $2,742 4,219 gems 3.03x 2026-11-10 15:32 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $2,742 4,219 gems 3.03x 2026-11-10 15:29 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $2,742 4,219 gems 3.03x 2026-11-09 14:17 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $2,742 4,219 gems 3.03x 2026-11-09 14:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=the-cerberus) [AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $22.37 34.42 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 15:34 UTC [Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $242 373 gems 0.27x 2026-11-10 15:34 UTC [Tec-9 | Hades (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-field-tested) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $10.22 15.73 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 15:34 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $55.98 86.12 gems 0.06x 2026-11-10 15:34 UTC [AUG | Daedalus (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-field-tested) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $2.46 3.78 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:34 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) [Chuck](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Chuck) $906 1,393 gems $2,022 3,111 gems 2.23x 2026-11-10 15:34 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $0.62 0.95 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:32 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $0.62 0.95 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:32 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $86.16 133 gems 0.10x 2026-11-10 15:32 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $906 1,393 gems $2,742 4,219 gems 3.03x 2026-11-10 15:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $906 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 27.0% restricted 37.0% mil spec 9.0% industrial 9.0% Industrial Grade 9.0% Common 9.0% best hit $3,870 (4.27x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt